Nevada’s rushing yards in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Through Nevada’s game on Sep 5, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nevada was 24.5 yards under in a conference game and 57.2 yards over in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 15 games against 8. The plain averages are 126.9 and 225.9, a difference of 99.0. Both opponents outside the major colleges were in a nonconference game.
Nevada’s −81.7 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 132nd of the 132 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Sep 5, 2026.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −81.7 difference in rushing yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −99.0 difference in rushing yards in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2024 | @ Troy | W | 218 | 149.8 | |
| Sep 7, 2024 | vs Georgia Southern | L | 231 | 171.7 | |
| Sep 14, 2024 | @ Minnesota | L | 58 | 120.6 | |
| Sep 21, 2024 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 320 | — | |
| Oct 5, 2024 | @ San Jose State | L | 190 | 144.3 | |
| Oct 12, 2024 | vs Oregon State | W | 353 | 166.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2024 | vs Fresno State | L | 84 | 158.2 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Hawaii | L | 100 | 184.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Colorado State | L | 189 | 176.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Boise State | L | 87 | 135.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Air Force | L | 94 | 164.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ UNLV | L | 67 | 142.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Penn State | L | 78 | 123.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSSacramento State | W | 266 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | L | 203 | 148.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 207 | 171.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Fresno State | L | 129 | 142.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs San Diego State | L | 60 | 158.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 55 | 105.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vsBoise State | L | 101 | 147.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 121 | 164.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsSan Jose State | W | 218 | 139.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Wyoming | W | 215 | 141.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUNLV | L | 193 | 164.0 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 325 | 164.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.8 in 2024, plus 5.9 in 2025, plus 8.0 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 77% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Washington, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Sep 5.