Nevada’s rushing yards in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nevada was 14.7 yards under in a conference game and 0.2 yards under in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 16 games against 6. The plain averages are 136.1 and 175.5, a difference of 39.4. Both top-10 opponents were in a nonconference game.
Nevada’s −14.5 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 90th of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
rushing yards a game over expected
in a conference game
−14.7
in a nonconference game
−0.2
-1000100
A −14.5 difference in rushing yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is about what you’d expect.
plain
136.1
175.5
100200300
A −39.4 difference in rushing yards in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is about what you’d expect.
The games
in a conference gamein a nonconference game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Hawaii | L | 100 | 184.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Colorado State | L | 189 | 176.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Boise State | L | 87 | 135.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Air Force | L | 94 | 164.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ UNLV | L | 67 | 142.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Penn State | L | 78 | 123.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSSacramento State | W | 266 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | L | 203 | 148.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 207 | 171.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Fresno State | L | 129 | 142.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs San Diego State | L | 60 | 158.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 55 | 105.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vsBoise State | L | 101 | 147.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 121 | 164.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 218 | 139.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Wyoming | W | 215 | 141.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUNLV | L | 193 | 164.0 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 325 | 164.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Montana State | L | 182 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Middle Tennessee | L | 78 | 217.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsAir Force | L | 187 | 123.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 279 | 170.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 96 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSan Jose State | W | 122 | 190.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 65 | 132.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.8 in 2024, plus 5.9 in 2025, plus 8.0 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 77% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Sacramento State, Montana State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.