Minnesota’s third-down conversion rate with Darius Taylor and without Darius Taylor
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Minnesota was 3.0 percentage points under with Darius Taylor and 2.7 percentage points over without Darius Taylor over its last 25 games, 19 games against 4. The plain averages are 36.1% and 42.0%, a difference of 5.9%. All 3 neutral-site games were with Darius Taylor. All 6 ranked opponents were with Darius Taylor. All 4 top-10 opponents were with Darius Taylor.
Darius Taylor, running back: 1,229 rushing yards, 305 carries and 67 receptions in 21 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −5.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Darius Taylor vs without Darius Taylor is about what you’d expect.
A −5.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Darius Taylor vs without Darius Taylor is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Rutgers | L | 43.8% | 43.3% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Penn State | L | 41.7% | 39.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Wisconsin | W | 46.7% | 40.3% | |
| Jan 3, 2025 | vs Virginia Tech (neutral) | W | 36.4% | 40.0% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Buffalo | W | 56.3% | 40.8% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Northwestern State | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ California | L | 46.7% | 42.0% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsRutgers | W | 45.5% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Ohio State | L | 9.1% | 34.6% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 33.3% | 41.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs Nebraska | W | 41.7% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Iowa | L | 30.8% | 35.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 40.0% | 40.1% | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 43.8% | 35.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Northwestern (neutral) | L | 25.0% | 43.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsWisconsin | W | 50.0% | 35.1% | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs New Mexico (neutral) | W | 46.7% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsEEastern Illinois | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | L | 30.8% | 36.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 35.7% | 35.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 28.6% | 29.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Michigan | W | 28.6% | 34.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Purdue | L | 30.8% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsIowa | W | 14.3% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | 20.0% | 29.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Northwestern State, Eastern Illinois have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.