Minnesota’s third-down conversion rate with Darius Taylor and without Darius Taylor
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Minnesota was 8.6 percentage points under with Darius Taylor and 0.2 percentage points under without Darius Taylor in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 31.4% and 35.7%, a difference of 4.3%. All 3 away games were with Darius Taylor. Both ranked opponents were with Darius Taylor. All 5 conference games were with Darius Taylor.
Darius Taylor, running back: 217 rushing yards, 83 carries and 22 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Darius Taylor is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Darius Taylor
−8.6%
without Darius Taylor
−0.2%
-20%-10%0%
plain
31.4%
35.7%
20%40%60%
The games
with Darius Taylorwithout Darius Taylor
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsEEastern Illinois | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | L | 30.8% | 36.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 35.7% | 35.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 28.6% | 29.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Michigan | W | 28.6% | 34.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Purdue | L | 30.8% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Iowa | W | 14.3% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | 20.0% | 29.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Eastern Illinois has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.