Hawaii’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Hawaii was 7.7 points under at home and 4.0 points over away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 15.3 and 26.3, a difference of 11.0.
Hawaii’s −11.7 at home vs away over expected ranks 12th of the 12 teams with 4 games on each side this season.
points a game over expected
at home
−7.7
away
+4.0
-20020
A −11.7 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
15.3
26.3
2040
A −11.0 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Stanford | L | 27 | 24.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs UNLV | L | 6 | 26.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs New Mexico State | W | 29 | 24.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Wyoming | L | 10 | 19.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 16 | 22.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Arizona State | L | 12 | 22.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs New Mexico | L | 10 | 17.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 56 | 22.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.