Hawaii’s points allowed at home and away
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Through Hawaii’s game on Aug 29, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Hawaii was 5.8 points under at home and 7.9 points over away over its last 25 games, 12 games against 11. The plain averages are 18.5 and 35.4, a difference of 16.9. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
Hawaii’s −13.7 at home vs away over expected ranks 136th of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Aug 29, 2026.
points allowed a game over expected
at home
−5.8
away
+7.9
-20020
A −13.7 difference in points allowed over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
18.5
35.4
2040
A −16.9 difference in points allowed at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2024 | vs UCLA | L | 16 | 29.1 | |
| Sep 14, 2024 | @ Sam Houston | L | 31 | 23.2 | |
| Sep 21, 2024 | vsNNorthern Iowa | W | 7 | — | |
| Oct 5, 2024 | @ San Diego State | L | 27 | 20.5 | |
| Oct 12, 2024 | vs Boise State | L | 28 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 19, 2024 | @ Washington State | L | 42 | 31.5 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Nevada | W | 13 | 25.3 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Fresno State | W | 20 | 28.4 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs UNLV | L | 29 | 32.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Utah State | L | 55 | 29.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs New Mexico | W | 30 | 30.8 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 20 | 24.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | 40 | 33.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSam Houston | W | 20 | 16.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsPPortland State | W | 3 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsFresno State | L | 23 | 22.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Air Force | W | 35 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vsUtah State | W | 26 | 29.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Colorado State | W | 19 | 25.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ San Jose State | L | 45 | 22.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsSan Diego State | W | 6 | 28.4 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | @UNLV | L | 38 | 33.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 7 | 17.3 | |
| Dec 24, 2025 | vs California | W | 31 | 26.6 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @Stanford | L | 37 | 25.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2024, minus 1.5 in 2025, minus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Northern Iowa, Portland State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Aug 29.