Buffalo’s third-down conversion rate with James McNeil Jr. and without James McNeil Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Buffalo was 5.1 percentage points under with James McNeil Jr. and 0.3 percentage points under without James McNeil Jr. in 2026, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 34.7% and 42.1%, a difference of 7.4%. Both night games were with James McNeil Jr..
James McNeil Jr., running back: 120 rushing yards and 27 carries in 4 games this season.
3 games without James McNeil Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −4.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with James McNeil Jr. vs without James McNeil Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A −7.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with James McNeil Jr. vs without James McNeil Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsUUAlbany | W | 47.6% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | 23.5% | 36.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 7.1% | 32.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 52.6% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 35.7% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Toledo | W | 38.1% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs UMass | W | 42.1% | 40.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 53.3% | 37.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UAlbany, Robert Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.