Buffalo’s carries with James McNeil Jr. and without James McNeil Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Buffalo was 0.2 carries under with James McNeil Jr. and 5.9 carries over without James McNeil Jr. over its last 25 games, 16 games against 6. The plain averages are 35.7 and 46.9, a difference of 11.2. Both night games were with James McNeil Jr..
James McNeil Jr., running back: 202 rushing yards and 41 carries in 12 of those 25 games, 9% of Buffalo’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with James McNeil Jr.
−0.2
without James McNeil Jr.
+5.9
-10010
A −6.2 difference in carries over expected with James McNeil Jr. vs without James McNeil Jr. is about what you’d expect.
plain
35.7
46.9
30405060
A −11.2 difference in carries with James McNeil Jr. vs without James McNeil Jr. is unusual: shuffle which games were with James McNeil Jr. and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
with James McNeil Jr.without James McNeil Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Akron | W | 42 | 39.3 | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | vs Ball State | W | 40 | 35.5 | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 40 | 37.4 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | vs Kent State | W | 52 | 43.5 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Liberty (neutral) | W | 51 | 38.4 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ Minnesota | L | 24 | 30.1 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSSt. Francis (PA) | W | 63 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @Kent State | W | 29 | 36.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Troy | L | 34 | 33.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UConn | L | 42 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsEastern Michigan | W | 31 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 30 | 38.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsAkron | L | 34 | 32.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | W | 27 | 31.7 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | L | 34 | 30.7 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 33 | 30.3 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Ohio | L | 32 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsUUAlbany | W | 30 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | 25 | 38.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 38 | 33.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 62 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 47 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Toledo | W | 45 | 38.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsUMass | W | 44 | 40.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBowling Green | W | 41 | 41.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- St. Francis (PA), UAlbany, Robert Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.