Buffalo’s carries with James McNeil Jr. and without James McNeil Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Buffalo was 1.6 carries under with James McNeil Jr. and 8.7 carries over without James McNeil Jr. in 2026, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 35.6 and 51.3, a difference of 15.7. Both night games were with James McNeil Jr..
James McNeil Jr., running back: 120 rushing yards and 27 carries in 4 games this season, 20% of Buffalo’s carries in those games.
3 games without James McNeil Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −10.2 difference in carries over expected with James McNeil Jr. vs without James McNeil Jr. is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with James McNeil Jr. and it comes up 18 times in 100.
A −15.7 difference in carries with James McNeil Jr. vs without James McNeil Jr. is unusual: shuffle which games were with James McNeil Jr. and it comes up 4 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsUUAlbany | W | 30 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | 25 | 38.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 38 | 33.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 62 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 47 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Toledo | W | 45 | 38.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs UMass | W | 44 | 40.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 41 | 41.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UAlbany, Robert Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.