Buffalo’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Buffalo was 2.8 points under at home and 0.3 points over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 25.0 and 22.5, a difference of 2.5. Expected was 4.9 points higher at home than away. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
points a game over expected
at home
−2.8
away
+0.3
-505
A −3.1 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
25.0
22.5
2030
A +2.5 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsUUAlbany | W | 21 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | 20 | 21.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 13 | 15.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 31 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 17 | 22.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Toledo | W | 23 | 27.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs UMass | W | 25 | 29.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 31 | 29.6 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @ Miami (OH) | W | 34 | 25.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UAlbany, Robert Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.