Buffalo’s passing yards in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Buffalo was 13.4 yards over in a conference game and 59.9 yards under in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 16 games against 6. The plain averages are 234.9 and 143.3, a difference of 91.6. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were in a nonconference game.
Buffalo’s +73.2 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 4th of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
passing yards a game over expected
A +73.2 difference in passing yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 3 times in 100.
A +91.6 difference in passing yards in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Akron | W | 210 | 209.2 | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | vs Ball State | W | 264 | 249.6 | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 260 | 207.3 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | vs Kent State | W | 193 | 222.1 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Liberty (neutral) | W | 137 | 198.2 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ Minnesota | L | 107 | 227.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSSt. Francis (PA) | W | 133 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @Kent State | W | 318 | 244.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Troy | L | 153 | 221.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UConn | L | 125 | 255.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsEastern Michigan | W | 272 | 222.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 403 | 219.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsAkron | L | 266 | 259.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | W | 136 | 238.0 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | L | 262 | 224.5 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 303 | 227.9 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Ohio | L | 270 | 220.4 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsUUAlbany | W | 189 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | 246 | 147.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 60 | 137.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 140 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 170 | 215.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Toledo | W | 171 | 221.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsUMass | W | 134 | 182.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBowling Green | W | 127 | 180.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.3 in 2024, plus 1.8 in 2025, plus 4.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 72% in 2024, 68% in 2025, 59% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- St. Francis (PA), UAlbany, Robert Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.