Central Michigan @ Buffalo

Wed, Nov 18 · UB Stadium

No line yet.

Central Michigan at Buffalo: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Central Michigan9 games	Buffalo9 games
	−4.6	−1.8
	−0.1	+2.4
	−84	−30
	+16	+42
	−0.6	−0.6
	−26.4	−25.1
	−4.8%	−3.7%
	0.0	+0.1
	+2.8	−22.5
	+0.2	−0.1
	−0.2	+0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Buffalo

Buffalo has covered 5 straight.streakthe runs →
Buffalo has beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →
Buffalo has won 4 straight.streakthe runs →
Buffalo is 1.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 59th of 136, and 8.5 worse at home than away over its last 25, 129th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Central Michigan

Central Michigan has covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →
Central Michigan is 0.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 68th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Central Michigan leads the series 9–4 since 1999.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Without Nino Hill, Buffalo’s pass attempts are 12.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Clint Walker’s last game, Buffalo’s passing yards are 107.9 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, Buffalo’s passing yards are 58.4 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Since Brock Townsend’s last game, Central Michigan’s points allowed are 17.1 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Vaughn Blue, Central Michigan’s rushing yards are 88.8 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Jayden Clerveaux, Central Michigan’s pass attempts are 8.9 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 12, 2025	at Central Michigan	Central Michigan 38, Buffalo 19
Oct 7, 2023	at Buffalo	Buffalo 37, Central Michigan 13
Nov 9, 2022	at Central Michigan	Central Michigan 31, Buffalo 27
Oct 26, 2019	at Buffalo	Buffalo 43, Central Michigan 20
Oct 6, 2018	at Central Michigan	Buffalo 34, Central Michigan 24
Oct 17, 2015	at Central Michigan	Central Michigan 51, Buffalo 14
Oct 25, 2014	at Buffalo	Central Michigan 20, Buffalo 14
Oct 3, 2009	at Buffalo	Central Michigan 20, Buffalo 13
Sep 27, 2008	at Central Michigan	Central Michigan 27, Buffalo 25
Nov 24, 2006	at Buffalo	Central Michigan 55, Buffalo 28

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.