California’s total yards in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, California was 41.0 yards under in a conference game and 42.1 yards over in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 16 games against 7. The plain averages are 317.9 and 421.8, a difference of 103.9. Both opponents outside the major colleges were in a nonconference game.
California’s −83.1 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 133rd of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
total yards a game over expected
A −83.1 difference in total yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up once in 100.
A −103.9 difference in total yards in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | total yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Stanford | W | 374 | 409.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ SMU | L | 254 | 358.5 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs UNLV (neutral) | L | 348 | 369.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Oregon State | W | 363 | 369.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Texas Southern | W | 467 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 342 | 350.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | 289 | 328.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 375 | 413.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Duke | L | 286 | 425.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs North Carolina | W | 294 | 357.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | L | 333 | 342.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Virginia | L | 263 | 319.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Louisville | W | 427 | 279.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Stanford | L | 302 | 368.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsSMU | W | 453 | 364.5 | |
| Dec 24, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | 481 | 355.0 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | 416 | 287.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Syracuse | W | 251 | 355.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 626 | — | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Clemson | L | 231 | 348.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @UNLV | L | 464 | 348.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsVirginia Tech | W | 403 | 360.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | 266 | 337.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @SMU | L | 305 | 303.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NC State | L | 269 | 399.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 6.1 in 2024, plus 7.7 in 2025, plus 12.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% in 2024, 79% in 2025, 67% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Texas Southern, Wagner have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.