Louisiana Tech’s total yards at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Tech was 100.8 yards over at home and 69.7 yards under away over its last 25 games, 9 games against 12. The plain averages are 465.2 and 280.8, a difference of 184.3. Both ranked opponents were away. Both top-10 opponents were away. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
Louisiana Tech’s +170.4 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
total yards a game over expected
A +170.4 difference in total yards over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +184.3 difference in total yards at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | total yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Western Kentucky | W | 279 | 366.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arkansas | L | 247 | 270.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 448 | 364.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Army (neutral) | L | 218 | 257.6 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsSS E Louisiana | W | 263 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ LSU | L | 157 | 273.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 575 | 363.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Southern Miss | W | 339 | 403.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 232 | 392.7 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @Kennesaw State | L | 305 | 398.4 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vsWestern Kentucky | L | 449 | 401.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 647 | 416.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Delaware | L | 333 | 397.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | 167 | 258.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 437 | 362.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Missouri State | W | 479 | 340.5 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina (neutral) | W | 297 | 430.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northwestern State | W | 530 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @LSU | L | 139 | 283.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | 366 | 334.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsArmy | W | 505 | 411.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 486 | 335.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 340 | 434.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | W | 438 | 358.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ South Alabama | W | 326 | 454.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 6.1 in 2024, plus 7.7 in 2025, plus 12.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% in 2024, 79% in 2025, 67% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- S E Louisiana, Northwestern State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.