Putting Up Numbers· college football

Arkansas @ Texas A&M

Sat, Oct 3, 2026

Texas A&M 34, Arkansas 7Texas A&M was favored by 13.5, and Texas A&M covered.

Arkansas at Texas A&M: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameArkansas1 gameTexas A&M1 game
Points−14.5+3.7
Points allowed+6.5−12.4
Total offense, yards−1360
Total defense, yards+45−124
Touchdowns−1.7+0.3
Passer rating−42.9+0.6
Third downs−4.9%+13.5%
Sacks−2.0−1.2
Penalty yards−15.4+15.1
Turnovers forced−1.2−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.3−1.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Texas A&M

Arkansas

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Texas A&M

  • Texas A&M was 5.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 108th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+13.5 against the line this game.

Arkansas

  • Arkansas was 6.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 112th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−13.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Arkansas leads the series 42–38–3 since 1903. Texas A&M has won the last 5.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Texas A&M had beaten 9 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
  • Texas A&M had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • In a conference game, Texas A&M’s pass attempts were 7.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.1 under expected.
  • At home, Texas A&M’s pass attempts were 6.3 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.1 under expected.
  • At night, Texas A&M’s points allowed were 5.4 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 12.4 under expected.
  • Arkansas had lost 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Arkansas had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • In a conference game, Arkansas’ carries were 15.2 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.8 under expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Arkansas’ points allowed were 19.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.6 over expected.
  • On the road, Arkansas’ points of margin were 17.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 16.2 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 3, 2026at Texas A&MTexas A&M 34, Arkansas 7
Oct 18, 2025at ArkansasTexas A&M 45, Arkansas 42
Sep 28, 2024neutralTexas A&M 21, Arkansas 17
Sep 30, 2023neutralTexas A&M 34, Arkansas 22
Sep 24, 2022neutralTexas A&M 23, Arkansas 21
Sep 25, 2021neutralArkansas 20, Texas A&M 10
Oct 31, 2020at Texas A&MTexas A&M 42, Arkansas 31
Sep 28, 2019neutralTexas A&M 31, Arkansas 27
Sep 29, 2018neutralTexas A&M 24, Arkansas 17
Sep 23, 2017neutralTexas A&M 50, Arkansas 43

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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