Putting Up Numbers· college football

Mississippi State @ South Carolina

Sat, Sep 19, 2026

Mississippi State 41, South Carolina 34South Carolina was favored by 3, and Mississippi State covered.

Mississippi State at South Carolina: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameMississippi State1 gameSouth Carolina1 game
Points+17.8+3.3
Points allowed+0.3+19.6
Total offense, yards+58+43
Total defense, yards−11+35
Touchdowns+2.3−0.2
Passer rating+68.5−22.1
Third downs+6.6%−8.6%
Sacks+1.1+0.1
Penalty yards+42.8+39.4
Turnovers forced+0.8−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.2+0.9

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

South Carolina

Mississippi State

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

The series

If you squint

  • South Carolina had beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Mississippi State had covered 8 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Mississippi State had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • On the road, Mississippi State’s third-down conversion rate were 26.5% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.8% over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 19, 2026at South CarolinaMississippi State 41, South Carolina 34
Sep 23, 2023at South CarolinaSouth Carolina 37, Mississippi State 30
Sep 10, 2016at Mississippi StateMississippi State 27, South Carolina 14
Nov 2, 2013at South CarolinaSouth Carolina 34, Mississippi State 16
Oct 15, 2011at Mississippi StateSouth Carolina 14, Mississippi State 12
Sep 29, 2007at South CarolinaSouth Carolina 38, Mississippi State 21
Aug 31, 2006at Mississippi StateSouth Carolina 15, Mississippi State 0
Oct 5, 2002at South CarolinaSouth Carolina 34, Mississippi State 10
Sep 20, 2001at Mississippi StateSouth Carolina 16, Mississippi State 14
Sep 23, 2000at South CarolinaSouth Carolina 23, Mississippi State 19

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 18, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.