Utah State’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Utah State was 5.2 points over at home and 5.4 points under away in 2025-26, 13 games against 15. The plain averages are 67.2 and 51.3, a difference of 15.9.
Utah State’s +10.6 at home vs away over expected ranks 2nd of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26.
points a game over expected
at home
+5.2
away
−5.4
-200
A +10.6 difference in points over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
67.2
51.3
406080
A +15.9 difference in points at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Utah | L | 53 | 54.4 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @ Cal State Bakersfield | W | 68 | 64.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Omaha | W | 77 | 69.8 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Oregon State | L | 52 | 52.0 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vsSStanislaus State | W | 96 | — | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 34 | 49.8 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @ Loyola Marymount | L | 58 | 58.1 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ San Diego | L | 66 | 56.9 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Idaho | W | 80 | 60.9 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Air Force | W | 65 | 59.8 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Colorado State | L | 46 | 49.2 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs San José State | W | 74 | 67.2 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Nevada | L | 40 | 57.2 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @ UNLV | L | 58 | 55.8 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs San Diego State | L | 72 | 55.1 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @ Fresno State | L | 56 | 55.3 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs Boise State | L | 60 | 61.5 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @ Wyoming | L | 51 | 55.6 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsWyoming | L | 56 | 57.9 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | vs Grand Canyon | L | 66 | 58.7 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 33 | 56.3 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @Air Force | L | 50 | 58.1 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsUNLV | L | 60 | 58.4 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsFresno State | L | 59 | 57.8 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | @San José State | L | 56 | 65.7 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Grand Canyon | L | 43 | 57.6 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | L | 54 | 57.6 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Boise State | L | 59 | 58.9 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vsNevada | L | 69 | 57.9 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsGrand Canyon (neutral) | L | 58 | 57.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.3 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 94% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stanislaus State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.