Utah State’s points allowed at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Utah State was 4.8 points over at home and 3.1 points under away over its last 60 games, 25 games against 29. The plain averages are 72.3 and 71.7, a difference of 0.6. Expected was 5.0 points lower at home than away.
Utah State’s +7.9 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
points allowed a game over expected
at home
+4.8
away
−3.1
-10010
A +7.9 difference in points allowed over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
72.3
71.7
6080
A +0.6 difference in points allowed at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2024 | vs Kansas City | L | 80 | 71.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | vs Cal State Northridge | L | 69 | 64.9 | |
| Nov 14, 2024 | vs Cal State Bakersfield | W | 51 | 60.8 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ Northern Colorado | L | 85 | 71.1 | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | @ Colorado | L | 95 | 85.1 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | @ Omaha | L | 79 | 76.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | 87 | 93.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Stetson (neutral) | L | 84 | 72.6 | |
| Dec 4, 2024 | @ Utah | L | 87 | 93.8 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ Grand Canyon | L | 76 | 85.6 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ Idaho | L | 71 | 76.1 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs UC Riverside | L | 74 | 67.2 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs Colorado State | L | 83 | 76.8 | |
| Jan 1, 2025 | @ Wyoming | L | 73 | 78.5 | |
| Jan 8, 2025 | vs Boise State | L | 82 | 77.7 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ Nevada | L | 78 | 73.2 | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | @ Fresno State | L | 74 | 75.2 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vs San Diego State | L | 85 | 76.8 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ San José State | W | 64 | 76.6 | |
| Jan 29, 2025 | @ Air Force | L | 78 | 76.5 | |
| Feb 5, 2025 | vs UNLV | L | 89 | 85.0 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vsFresno State | L | 81 | 72.0 | |
| Feb 12, 2025 | @Colorado State | L | 72 | 80.3 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | @San Diego State | L | 78 | 80.0 | |
| Feb 19, 2025 | vsAir Force | L | 82 | 73.5 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 73 | 81.7 | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | vsSan José State | W | 75 | 73.2 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsNevada | W | 75 | 70.7 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | vsAir Force (neutral) | L | 66 | 75.9 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vsUtah | L | 90 | 74.1 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @Cal State Bakersfield | W | 65 | 65.1 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsOmaha | W | 69 | 53.7 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Oregon State | L | 71 | 73.0 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vsSStanislaus State | W | 41 | — | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 70 | 85.9 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @ Loyola Marymount | L | 63 | 76.6 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ San Diego | L | 70 | 61.4 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vsIdaho | W | 73 | 76.4 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vsAir Force | W | 53 | 65.2 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @Colorado State | L | 55 | 73.1 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vsSan José State | W | 61 | 60.7 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @Nevada | L | 58 | 64.6 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @UNLV | L | 69 | 77.2 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsSan Diego State | L | 73 | 73.4 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @Fresno State | L | 86 | 66.9 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsBoise State | L | 76 | 72.5 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @Wyoming | L | 63 | 62.5 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsWyoming | L | 74 | 59.0 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | vsGrand Canyon | L | 86 | 69.5 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @New Mexico | L | 58 | 73.3 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @Air Force | L | 73 | 66.6 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsUNLV | L | 71 | 74.4 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsFresno State | L | 73 | 65.1 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | @San José State | L | 58 | 63.6 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Grand Canyon | L | 63 | 73.7 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | L | 69 | 69.8 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Boise State | L | 75 | 75.3 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vsNevada | L | 72 | 60.9 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsGrand Canyon (neutral) | L | 75 | 71.6 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vsWWestminster (UT) | W | 45 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.3 in 2024-25, minus 1.3 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% in 2024-25, 94% in 2025-26, 100% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stanislaus State, Westminster (UT) have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.