USC’s 3-pointers made at home and away
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Through USC’s game on Mar 23, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 0.7 3-pointers made under at home and 1.8 3-pointers made over away over its last 60 games, 29 games against 21. The plain averages are 6.6 and 8.5, a difference of 1.9.
USC’s −2.5 at home vs away over expected ranks 362nd of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games through Mar 23, 2026.
3-pointers made a game over expected
at home
−0.7
away
+1.8
05
A −2.5 difference in 3-pointers made over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
6.6
8.5
510
A −1.9 difference in 3-pointers made at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3-pointers made | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2024 | vs California Baptist | W | 11 | 9.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ Oregon | W | 9 | 6.1 | |
| Dec 10, 2024 | vs Fresno State | W | 7 | 7.0 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs Elon | W | 4 | 6.6 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ UConn | W | 9 | 5.9 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs Michigan | W | 4 | 6.5 | |
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs Nebraska | W | 4 | 7.4 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 9 | 7.1 | |
| Jan 8, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 5 | 7.0 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 6 | 7.8 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | @ Indiana | W | 6 | 5.4 | |
| Jan 22, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 11 | 7.2 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 11 | 7.0 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | @ Iowa | L | 7 | 6.8 | |
| Feb 5, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 5 | 7.1 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vs Ohio State | W | 7 | 6.4 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | vs UCLA | W | 8 | 5.8 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | @ Washington | W | 8 | 5.6 | |
| Feb 19, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 5 | 6.2 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | vs Illinois | W | 4 | 5.5 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | @UCLA | W | 8 | 5.5 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | vsIndiana (neutral) | W | 6 | 5.6 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsMichigan (neutral) | W | 5 | 6.3 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | vsUCLA (neutral) | L | 8 | 5.7 | |
| Mar 22, 2025 | vs UNC Greensboro | W | 3 | 6.1 | |
| Mar 24, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | W | 8 | 7.4 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | vs Kansas State (neutral) | W | 6 | 6.0 | |
| Mar 31, 2025 | vsUConn (neutral) | L | 3 | 6.4 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 8 | 8.2 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs NC State (neutral) | W | 7 | 8.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Carolina (neutral) | L | 1 | 7.8 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs Portland | W | 9 | 6.6 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | 8 | 6.4 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Tennessee Tech | W | 8 | 6.5 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Pepperdine | W | 10 | 8.4 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs Saint Mary's | W | 8 | 7.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsWashington | W | 2 | 6.4 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vsUConn | L | 4 | 7.3 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs Cal Poly | W | 9 | 8.9 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs California (neutral) | W | 7 | 6.1 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @Nebraska | W | 6 | 6.6 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @UCLA | L | 8 | 6.3 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | vsOregon | L | 8 | 7.2 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @Minnesota | L | 14 | 7.1 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vsMaryland | L | 5 | 8.1 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vsPurdue | W | 7 | 8.1 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @Michigan State | L | 7 | 7.6 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @Michigan | L | 7 | 6.6 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsIowa | W | 10 | 7.8 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsRutgers | W | 8 | 8.3 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @ Northwestern | W | 10 | 7.8 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | @Illinois | W | 4 | 5.9 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | vsIndiana | W | 3 | 6.9 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsWisconsin | W | 6 | 8.4 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Ohio State | L | 11 | 7.5 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @Penn State | L | 14 | 8.4 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsUCLA | L | 3 | 6.8 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsWashington (neutral) | L | 8 | 5.9 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Clemson (neutral) | W | 8 | 7.0 | |
| Mar 23, 2026 | @South Carolina | L | 12 | 7.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 in 2024-25, plus 0.1 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 86% in 2024-25, 86% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.