USC’s free throw attempts at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 2.3 free throw attempts over at home and 2.6 free throw attempts under away over its last 60 games, 28 games against 21. The plain averages are 21.1 and 14.9, a difference of 6.2.
USC’s +4.9 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
free throw attempts a game over expected
at home
+2.3
away
−2.6
-10010
A +4.9 difference in free throw attempts over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
plain
21.1
14.9
102030
A +6.2 difference in free throw attempts at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | free throw attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ Oregon | W | 16 | 19.3 | |
| Dec 10, 2024 | vs Fresno State | W | 25 | 21.5 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs Elon | W | 20 | 23.1 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ UConn | W | 6 | 16.8 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs Michigan | W | 23 | 21.0 | |
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs Nebraska | W | 23 | 20.7 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 32 | 21.2 | |
| Jan 8, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 26 | 21.0 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 22 | 19.7 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | @ Indiana | W | 24 | 19.5 | |
| Jan 22, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 15 | 21.6 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 19 | 19.4 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | @ Iowa | L | 18 | 19.1 | |
| Feb 5, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 18 | 18.8 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vs Ohio State | W | 27 | 19.0 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | vs UCLA | W | 25 | 18.5 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | @ Washington | W | 14 | 18.5 | |
| Feb 19, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 35 | 22.9 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | vs Illinois | W | 18 | 19.3 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | @UCLA | W | 12 | 18.3 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | vsIndiana (neutral) | W | 31 | 19.6 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsMichigan (neutral) | W | 26 | 20.4 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | vsUCLA (neutral) | L | 13 | 18.7 | |
| Mar 22, 2025 | vs UNC Greensboro | W | 19 | 20.8 | |
| Mar 24, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | W | 23 | 20.6 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | vs Kansas State (neutral) | W | 16 | 17.9 | |
| Mar 31, 2025 | vsUConn (neutral) | L | 26 | 16.3 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 39 | 21.0 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs NC State (neutral) | W | 10 | 12.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Carolina (neutral) | L | 10 | 11.4 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs Portland | W | 12 | 20.3 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | 7 | 17.1 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Tennessee Tech | W | 15 | 18.8 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Pepperdine | W | 15 | 18.0 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs Saint Mary's | W | 25 | 17.3 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsWashington | W | 21 | 15.4 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vsUConn | L | 20 | 13.8 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs Cal Poly | W | 14 | 23.0 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs California (neutral) | W | 12 | 15.9 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @Nebraska | W | 17 | 16.5 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @UCLA | L | 8 | 12.4 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | vsOregon | L | 14 | 16.8 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @Minnesota | L | 5 | 14.4 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vsMaryland | L | 15 | 16.2 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vsPurdue | W | 23 | 19.9 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @Michigan State | L | 8 | 15.5 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @Michigan | L | 16 | 16.8 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsIowa | W | 14 | 13.7 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsRutgers | W | 22 | 19.1 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @ Northwestern | W | 13 | 17.8 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | @Illinois | W | 12 | 17.0 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | vsIndiana | W | 35 | 16.5 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsWisconsin | W | 18 | 18.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Ohio State | L | 18 | 16.0 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @Penn State | L | 17 | 18.6 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsUCLA | L | 11 | 13.0 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsWashington (neutral) | L | 29 | 14.6 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Clemson (neutral) | W | 15 | 14.3 | |
| Mar 23, 2026 | @South Carolina | L | 11 | 11.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs UNLV (neutral) | W | 19 | NaN |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.5 in 2024-25, plus 0.4 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 81% in 2024-25, 82% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.