Putting Up Numbers· women's college basketball

USC’s 3-point attempts vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent

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Through USC’s game on Mar 23, 2026.

Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 2.1 3-point attempts under vs a ranked opponent and 1.8 3-point attempts over vs an unranked opponent over its last 60 games, 22 games against 32. The plain averages are 20.7 and 24.2, a difference of 3.5.

USC’s −3.9 vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 79th of the 81 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games through Mar 23, 2026.

3-point attempts a game over expected

A −3.9 difference in 3-point attempts over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up once in 100.

A −3.5 difference in 3-point attempts vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up once in 100.

The games

vs a ranked opponentvs an unranked opponent
USC’s games, last 60 games, each marked vs a ranked opponent or vs an unranked opponent
SideDateGameResult3-point attemptsExpected
Dec 3, 2024vsCalifornia BaptistW2425.1
Dec 7, 2024@OregonW2519.0
Dec 10, 2024vsFresno StateW1820.5
Dec 15, 2024vsElonW2118.9
Dec 21, 2024@UConnW1621.4
Dec 29, 2024vsMichiganW1421.9
Jan 1, 2025vsNebraskaW1722.5
Jan 5, 2025@RutgersW2823.7
Jan 8, 2025@MarylandW1522.4
Jan 12, 2025vsPenn StateW2522.8
Jan 19, 2025@IndianaW1817.6
Jan 22, 2025@PurdueW3022.5
Jan 30, 2025vsMinnesotaW2721.6
Feb 2, 2025@IowaL2422.3
Feb 5, 2025@WisconsinW1620.8
Feb 8, 2025vsOhio StateW1920.5
Feb 13, 2025vsUCLAW1820.2
Feb 16, 2025@WashingtonW2317.6
Feb 19, 2025vsMichigan StateW1519.4
Feb 23, 2025vsIllinoisW1918.8
Mar 1, 2025@UCLAW2319.6
Mar 7, 2025vsIndiana (neutral)W2117.5
Mar 8, 2025vsMichigan (neutral)W1821.5
Mar 9, 2025vsUCLA (neutral)L2819.5
Mar 22, 2025vsUNC GreensboroW1416.1
Mar 24, 2025vsMississippi StateW2423.4
Mar 29, 2025vsKansas State (neutral)W1820.3
Mar 31, 2025vsUConn (neutral)L1321.8
Nov 4, 2025vsNew Mexico StateW2425.6
Nov 9, 2025vsNC State (neutral)W2627.5
Nov 15, 2025vsSouth Carolina (neutral)L1426.7
Nov 18, 2025vsPortlandW2520.4
Nov 21, 2025@Notre DameL2021.3
Nov 25, 2025vsTennessee TechW1821.4
Nov 28, 2025vsPepperdineW2524.7
Dec 2, 2025vsSaint Mary'sW2625.5
Dec 7, 2025vsWashingtonW1721.6
Dec 13, 2025vsUConnL1926.3
Dec 18, 2025vsCal PolyW3626.9
Dec 21, 2025vsCalifornia (neutral)W1919.3
Dec 29, 2025@NebraskaW2023.0
Jan 3, 2026@UCLAL2424.1
Jan 6, 2026vsOregonL2624.8
Jan 11, 2026@MinnesotaL3124.7
Jan 15, 2026vsMarylandL3224.1
Jan 18, 2026vsPurdueW2024.0
Jan 22, 2026@Michigan StateL2224.4
Jan 25, 2026@MichiganL2322.9
Jan 29, 2026vsIowaW2726.3
Feb 1, 2026vsRutgersW3325.1
Feb 5, 2026@NorthwesternW3224.2
Feb 8, 2026@IllinoisW1520.6
Feb 12, 2026vsIndianaW1922.6
Feb 19, 2026vsWisconsinW2625.9
Feb 22, 2026@Ohio StateL2524.5
Feb 25, 2026@Penn StateL3326.1
Mar 1, 2026vsUCLAL1924.8
Mar 5, 2026vsWashington (neutral)L3020.7
Mar 21, 2026vsClemson (neutral)W2721.4
Mar 23, 2026@South CarolinaL2525.9

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Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 in 2024-25, plus 0.2 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 92% in 2024-25, 93% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
  • 6 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 are neither vs a ranked opponent nor vs an unranked opponent, and sit out.