North Carolina Central’s points allowed vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, North Carolina Central was 20.5 points over vs a ranked opponent and NaN points over vs an unranked opponent over its last 60 games, 6 games against 50. The plain averages are 118.5 and 68.8, a difference of 49.7. All 24 home games were vs an unranked opponent. All 3 neutral-site games were vs an unranked opponent. All 30 conference games were vs an unranked opponent.
North Carolina Central’s NaN vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 1st of the 81 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
points allowed a game over expected
A NaN difference in points allowed over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +49.7 difference in points allowed vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | vs Delaware State (neutral) | W | 56 | 65.2 | |
| Mar 15, 2024 | vs Howard (neutral) | L | 69 | 68.4 | |
| Nov 4, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | 96 | 84.0 | |
| Nov 7, 2024 | @ Clemson | L | 91 | 86.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Wofford | L | 75 | 78.7 | |
| Nov 13, 2024 | @ Charleston | L | 84 | 88.5 | |
| Nov 18, 2024 | @ Florida State | L | 119 | 106.4 | |
| Nov 21, 2024 | @ South Dakota | L | 61 | 80.9 | |
| Nov 25, 2024 | @ North Carolina A&T | L | 62 | 78.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ North Carolina | L | 119 | 90.3 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ LSU | L | 131 | 103.8 | |
| Dec 11, 2024 | vs Presbyterian | L | 67 | 65.7 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | 139 | 106.0 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | @ Winthrop | W | 71 | 70.1 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Furman | W | 76 | 78.6 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @ Coppin State | L | 69 | 79.5 | |
| Jan 7, 2025 | @ Morgan State | L | 84 | 71.4 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vs Maryland Eastern Shore | W | 86 | 72.2 | |
| Jan 13, 2025 | vsDelaware State | W | 71 | 63.6 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | @PPfeiffer | W | 55 | — | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | vs South Carolina State | W | 56 | 62.4 | |
| Feb 3, 2025 | @ Norfolk State | L | 88 | 86.4 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @Howard | L | 81 | 79.4 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vsCoppin State | L | 63 | 77.3 | |
| Feb 17, 2025 | vsMorgan State | W | 53 | 71.1 | |
| Feb 24, 2025 | @Delaware State | W | 47 | 68.4 | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | @Maryland Eastern Shore | L | 67 | 76.5 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsHoward | L | 74 | 77.2 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | @South Carolina State | W | 63 | 64.6 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @North Carolina | L | 90 | 88.6 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs UNC Wilmington | L | 78 | 62.7 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs UNC Asheville | W | 53 | 60.1 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vsCharleston | L | 75 | 77.1 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | L | 68 | 77.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ Old Dominion | L | 85 | 76.8 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs UNC Greensboro | L | 54 | 62.4 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vsNorth Carolina A&T | L | 73 | 67.3 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ South Carolina | L | 106 | 101.5 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ High Point | L | 82 | 77.0 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | @ Queens University | W | 51 | 65.2 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | 126 | 98.0 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vsAAverett | W | 48 | — | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsNorfolk State | L | 68 | 66.7 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @Morgan State | L | 64 | 63.9 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Coppin State | L | 77 | 66.1 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsHoward | L | 69 | 72.2 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vsMaryland Eastern Shore | W | 62 | 66.6 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | vsWWilliam Peace | W | 51 | — | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @Norfolk State | L | 58 | 70.1 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | vsDelaware State | W | 44 | 59.8 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | vsMorgan State | W | 63 | 61.3 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsCoppin State | L | 75 | 63.5 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | @South Carolina State | W | 65 | 57.6 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Howard | L | 66 | 75.1 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @Maryland Eastern Shore | L | 58 | 69.6 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Delaware State | L | 75 | 60.1 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsSouth Carolina State | W | 41 | 56.6 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vsCoppin State (neutral) | L | 70 | 65.2 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ Virginia Tech | L | 85 | NaN | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vsJJohnson C. Smith | W | 73 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.4 in 2023-24, minus 1.3 in 2024-25, minus 1.3 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% in 2023-24, 93% in 2024-25, 94% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Pfeiffer, Averett, William Peace, Johnson C. Smith have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.