Louisiana’s turnovers at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana was 2.1 turnovers under at home and 2.7 turnovers over away in 2025-26, 12 games against 13. The plain averages are 14.9 and 20.8, a difference of 5.9.
Louisiana’s −4.9 at home vs away over expected ranks 363rd of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26.
turnovers a game over expected
at home
−2.1
away
+2.7
010
A −4.9 difference in turnovers over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
14.9
20.8
102030
A −5.9 difference in turnovers at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Bowling Green | L | 18 | 18.0 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vsDDelta State | L | 16 | — | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 30 | 22.1 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | @ Nicholls | L | 18 | 17.9 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | @ Memphis | L | 21 | 18.5 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs High Point (neutral) | L | 13 | 16.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Fresno State (neutral) | L | 19 | 16.9 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs East Texas A&M | L | 12 | 14.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Morehead State | L | 14 | 16.6 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | @ Texas State | L | 18 | 17.8 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | L | 19 | 14.5 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vsDDillard | W | 14 | — | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Troy | L | 15 | 15.4 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs South Alabama | L | 16 | 15.6 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs UL Monroe | L | 14 | 18.6 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsTexas State | L | 21 | 17.0 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @ Arkansas State | L | 38 | 23.7 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @UL Monroe | L | 24 | 18.6 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 13 | 18.7 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | vs App State | L | 10 | 14.4 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @ James Madison | L | 19 | 16.7 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @ Marshall | L | 21 | 18.7 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | L | 14 | 16.4 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 14 | 14.5 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @Troy | L | 16 | 15.9 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @South Alabama | W | 11 | 16.5 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | vsSouthern Miss | L | 12 | 14.4 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsArkansas State | L | 19 | 24.2 | |
| Feb 27, 2026 | @ Georgia State | L | 21 | 19.0 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vsGeorgia State (neutral) | W | 17 | 18.9 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | vsUL Monroe (neutral) | L | 19 | 18.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.3 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 90% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Delta State, Dillard have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.