The Sabres' goals against vs a team over .500 and vs a team at .500 or under
, ,
Through the Sabres' game on May 18, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Sabres were 0.20 goals under vs a team over .500 and 0.92 goals over vs a team at .500 or under over their last 165 games, 111 games against 31. The plain averages are 3.00 and 4.00, a difference of 1.00.
The Sabres' −1.12 vs a team over .500 and vs a team at .500 or under over expected ranks 32nd of the 32 teams with 10 games on each side over their last 165 games through May 18, 2026.
goals against a game over expected
vs a team over .500
−0.20
vs a team at .500 or under
+0.92
-2024
A −1.12 difference in goals against over expected vs a team over .500 and vs a team at .500 or under is rare: shuffle which games were vs a team over .500 and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
3.00
4.00
0246
A −1.00 difference in goals against vs a team over .500 and vs a team at .500 or under is rare: shuffle which games were vs a team over .500 and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
vs a team over .500vs a team at .500 or under
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals against | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2024 | vs OTT | W | 1 | 3.21 | |
| Nov 7, 2024 | @ NYR | W | 1 | 3.56 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs CGY | W | 2 | 3.06 | |
| Nov 11, 2024 | vs MTL | L | 7 | 3.14 | |
| Nov 14, 2024 | vs STL | W | 3 | 3.36 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ PHI | L | 5 | 3.35 | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | @ LAK | W | 0 | 3.56 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | @ ANA | W | 2 | 3.27 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ SJS | W | 2 | 3.19 | |
| Nov 27, 2024 | vs MIN | L | 1 | 3.14 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs VAN | L | 4 | 3.12 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ NYI | L | 3 | 3.26 | |
| Dec 3, 2024 | vs COL | L | 5 | 3.46 | |
| Dec 5, 2024 | vs WPG | L | 3 | 3.42 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs UTA | L | 5 | 3.16 | |
| Dec 9, 2024 | vs DET | L | 6 | 3.11 | |
| Dec 11, 2024 | vsNYR | L | 3 | 3.30 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | @ WSH | L | 4 | 3.69 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ TOR | L | 5 | 3.57 | |
| Dec 17, 2024 | @MTL | L | 6 | 3.38 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vsTOR | L | 6 | 3.34 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ BOS | L | 3 | 3.26 | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | @NYI | W | 1 | 3.29 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs CHI | W | 2 | 3.10 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @STL | W | 2 | 3.60 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | @ DAL | L | 4 | 3.61 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | @COL | L | 6 | 3.66 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @ VGK | L | 3 | 3.62 | |
| Jan 6, 2025 | vsWSH | W | 3 | 3.48 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | @OTT | W | 0 | 3.45 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 6 | 3.19 | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | vs CAR | W | 2 | 3.40 | |
| Jan 17, 2025 | vs PIT | L | 5 | 3.18 | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | @SEA | L | 6 | 3.41 | |
| Jan 21, 2025 | @VAN | W | 2 | 3.38 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | @CGY | L | 5 | 3.23 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ EDM | L | 3 | 3.68 | |
| Jan 28, 2025 | vsBOS | W | 2 | 3.05 | |
| Jan 31, 2025 | vs NSH | W | 3 | 2.98 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | vs NJD | W | 3 | 3.16 | |
| Feb 4, 2025 | vs CBJ | W | 2 | 3.46 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @NSH | L | 6 | 3.15 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | vsNYR | W | 2 | 3.32 | |
| Feb 25, 2025 | vsANA | W | 2 | 3.05 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | @CAR | L | 5 | 3.57 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsMTL | L | 4 | 3.19 | |
| Mar 3, 2025 | @MTL | L | 4 | 3.41 | |
| Mar 4, 2025 | vsSJS | L | 6 | 2.91 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | @ TBL | L | 6 | 3.75 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @ FLA | L | 4 | 3.65 | |
| Mar 10, 2025 | vsEDM | W | 2 | 3.47 | |
| Mar 12, 2025 | @DET | L | 7 | 3.32 | |
| Mar 15, 2025 | vsVGK | W | 3 | 3.40 | |
| Mar 17, 2025 | @BOS | W | 2 | 3.28 | |
| Mar 20, 2025 | @UTA | L | 5 | 3.38 | |
| Mar 22, 2025 | @MIN | L | 4 | 3.31 | |
| Mar 23, 2025 | @WPG | W | 3 | 3.64 | |
| Mar 25, 2025 | vsOTT | W | 2 | 3.20 | |
| Mar 27, 2025 | vsPIT | W | 3 | 3.21 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | @PHI | L | 7 | 3.32 | |
| Mar 30, 2025 | @WSH | W | 5 | 3.67 | |
| Apr 1, 2025 | @OTT | W | 2 | 3.42 | |
| Apr 5, 2025 | vsTBL | W | 2 | 3.59 | |
| Apr 6, 2025 | vsBOS | W | 3 | 3.04 | |
| Apr 8, 2025 | vsCAR | W | 0 | 3.43 | |
| Apr 10, 2025 | @CBJ | L | 3 | 3.67 | |
| Apr 12, 2025 | @FLA | L | 3 | 3.66 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | @TBL | L | 7 | 3.74 | |
| Apr 15, 2025 | vsTOR | L | 4 | 3.37 | |
| Apr 17, 2025 | vsPHI | W | 4 | 3.15 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsNYR | L | 4 | 2.83 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @BOS | L | 3 | 3.11 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | vsCOL | L | 3 | 3.28 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vsOTT | W | 4 | 3.07 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsFLA | W | 0 | 2.99 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | @MTL | L | 4 | 3.19 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vsDET | W | 2 | 2.87 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vsTOR | W | 3 | 2.96 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @TOR | L | 4 | 3.01 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vsCBJ | L | 4 | 2.94 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @BOS | L | 4 | 3.10 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsWSH | W | 3 | 3.03 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vsUTA | L | 2 | 3.05 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vsSTL | L | 3 | 2.77 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @CAR | L | 6 | 3.30 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @UTA | L | 5 | 3.08 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | @COL | L | 6 | 3.30 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @DET | W | 4 | 2.91 | |
| Nov 17, 2025 | vsEDM | W | 1 | 3.16 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vsCGY | L | 6 | 2.58 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vsCHI | W | 3 | 2.64 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vsCAR | W | 1 | 3.30 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | @PIT | L | 4 | 3.25 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsNJD | L | 5 | 2.75 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @MIN | W | 2 | 3.21 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | vsWPG | W | 1 | 2.80 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @PHI | L | 5 | 2.91 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @WPG | L | 4 | 2.82 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @CGY | L | 7 | 2.63 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | @EDM | W | 3 | 3.20 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @VAN | W | 2 | 2.74 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @SEA | W | 1 | 2.81 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vsPHI | W | 3 | 2.87 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsNYI | W | 2 | 2.82 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @NJD | W | 1 | 2.87 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | @OTT | W | 2 | 3.16 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vsBOS | W | 1 | 3.08 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @STL | W | 2 | 2.85 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | @DAL | W | 1 | 3.18 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @CBJ | L | 5 | 2.99 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | vsVAN | W | 3 | 2.66 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @NYR | W | 2 | 2.92 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsANA | W | 3 | 3.07 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vsFLA | L | 4 | 2.93 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 2 | 2.88 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vsMTL | W | 3 | 3.14 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsMIN | L | 5 | 3.11 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | @CAR | L | 2 | 3.35 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | @NSH | W | 3 | 2.96 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @MTL | W | 2 | 3.22 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @NYI | W | 0 | 2.91 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | @TOR | W | 4 | 3.01 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsLAK | W | 1 | 2.71 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsMTL | L | 4 | 3.13 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | @FLA | W | 3 | 3.01 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | @TBL | L | 4 | 3.21 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | vsPIT | L | 5 | 3.17 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @NJD | W | 1 | 2.87 | |
| Feb 27, 2026 | @FLA | W | 2 | 3.02 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @TBL | W | 2 | 3.24 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vsVGK | W | 2 | 3.07 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | @PIT | W | 1 | 3.29 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsNSH | W | 2 | 2.91 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsTBL | W | 7 | 3.11 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vsSJS | W | 3 | 2.92 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vsWSH | L | 2 | 3.04 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vsTOR | W | 2 | 2.98 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | @VGK | W | 0 | 3.16 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | @SJS | W | 0 | 3.02 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @LAK | W | 1 | 2.78 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @ANA | L | 6 | 3.10 | |
| Mar 25, 2026 | vsBOS | L | 4 | 3.04 | |
| Mar 27, 2026 | vsDET | L | 5 | 2.83 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vsSEA | W | 2 | 2.74 | |
| Mar 31, 2026 | vsNYI | W | 3 | 2.80 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | @OTT | L | 4 | 3.13 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @WSH | L | 6 | 3.05 | |
| Apr 6, 2026 | vsTBL | W | 2 | 3.17 | |
| Apr 8, 2026 | @NYR | W | 3 | 2.91 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | vsCBJ | W | 0 | 3.00 | |
| Apr 13, 2026 | @CHI | W | 1 | 2.73 | |
| Apr 15, 2026 | vsDAL | L | 4 | 3.08 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vsBOS | W | 3 | 3.05 | |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vsBOS | L | 4 | 3.04 | |
| Apr 23, 2026 | @BOS | W | 1 | 3.14 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | @BOS | W | 1 | 3.14 | |
| Apr 28, 2026 | vsBOS | L | 2 | 3.06 | |
| May 1, 2026 | @BOS | W | 1 | 3.14 | |
| May 6, 2026 | vsMTL | W | 2 | 3.15 | |
| May 8, 2026 | vsMTL | L | 5 | 3.12 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @MTL | L | 6 | 3.17 | |
| May 12, 2026 | @MTL | W | 2 | 3.22 | |
| May 14, 2026 | vsMTL | L | 6 | 3.10 | |
| May 16, 2026 | @MTL | W | 3 | 3.20 | |
| May 18, 2026 | vsMTL | L | 3 | 3.14 |
Method
- Goals are the final score’s, as the league’s standings count them: a game decided in a shootout gives its winner one goal, so it reads as a one-goal game.
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.17 in 2024-25, minus 0.05 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 65% in 2024-25, 60% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 23 games in 2025-26 are neither vs a team over .500 nor vs a team at .500 or under, and sit out.