Putting Up Numbers· NHL

The Red Wings' goals on a back-to-back and with a day off or more

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Through the Red Wings' game on Oct 10, 2026.

Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Red Wings were 0.83 goals under on a back-to-back and 0.10 goals over with a day off or more over their last 165 games, 25 games against 138. The plain averages are 2.12 and 3.09, a difference of 0.97. All 9 games without Dylan Larkin were with a day off or more.

The Red Wings' −0.93 on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more over expected ranks 31st of the 32 teams with 10 games on each side over their last 165 games through Oct 10, 2026.

goals a game over expected

A −0.93 difference in goals over expected on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more is rare: shuffle which games were on a back-to-back and it comes up less than once in 100.

A −0.97 difference in goals on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more is rare: shuffle which games were on a back-to-back and it comes up less than once in 100.

The games

on a back-to-backwith a day off or more
Detroit Red Wings’ games, last 165 games, each marked on a back-to-back or with a day off or more
SideDateGameResultgoalsExpected
Oct 19, 2024@NSHW52.99
Oct 22, 2024@NYIW12.94
Oct 24, 2024vsNJDW52.82
Oct 26, 2024@BUFL33.16
Oct 27, 2024vsEDML23.01
Oct 30, 2024vsWPGL22.66
Nov 2, 2024vsBUFW23.40
Nov 6, 2024@CHIW43.20
Nov 8, 2024@TORL12.74
Nov 9, 2024vsNYRL03.15
Nov 13, 2024@PITW33.18
Nov 15, 2024@ANAL42.93
Nov 16, 2024@LAKL12.60
Nov 18, 2024@SJSL43.35
Nov 21, 2024vsNYIW23.14
Nov 23, 2024vsBOSL13.25
Nov 25, 2024@NYIW42.89
Nov 27, 2024vsCGYW22.99
Nov 29, 2024vsNJDL42.84
Dec 1, 2024vsVANL43.08
Dec 3, 2024@BOSL23.01
Dec 5, 2024@OTTL12.74
Dec 7, 2024vsCOLL12.98
Dec 9, 2024@BUFW63.11
Dec 12, 2024@PHIL13.15
Dec 14, 2024vsTORW42.92
Dec 18, 2024vsPHIW63.29
Dec 20, 2024vsMTLL33.17
Dec 21, 2024@MTLL12.98
Dec 23, 2024vsSTLL02.97
Dec 27, 2024vsTORL22.95
Dec 29, 2024vsWSHW42.89
Dec 31, 2024vsPITW43.39
Jan 2, 2025@CBJW52.95
Jan 4, 2025@WPGW42.41
Jan 7, 2025vsOTTW32.93
Jan 10, 2025vsCHIW53.40
Jan 12, 2025vsSEAW63.14
Jan 14, 2025vsSJSL33.58
Jan 16, 2025@FLAW52.51
Jan 18, 2025@TBLL12.66
Jan 19, 2025@DALL12.71
Jan 21, 2025@PHIL13.15
Jan 23, 2025vsMTLW43.16
Jan 25, 2025vsTBLW22.87
Jan 27, 2025vsLAKW52.76
Jan 30, 2025@EDMW32.78
Feb 1, 2025@CGYW32.75
Feb 2, 2025@VANW32.87
Feb 4, 2025@SEAW52.94
Feb 8, 2025vsTBLL32.85
Feb 22, 2025vsMINL32.96
Feb 23, 2025vsANAW53.13
Feb 25, 2025@MINW32.74
Feb 27, 2025vsCBJL23.22
Mar 1, 2025@CBJL32.99
Mar 4, 2025vsCARL12.91
Mar 6, 2025vsUTAL23.09
Mar 7, 2025@WSHL22.70
Mar 10, 2025@OTTL12.74
Mar 12, 2025vsBUFW73.32
Mar 14, 2025@CARL22.68
Mar 16, 2025vsVGKW32.86
Mar 18, 2025@WSHL12.72
Mar 22, 2025@VGKL32.64
Mar 24, 2025@UTAW52.82
Mar 25, 2025@COLL22.74
Mar 27, 2025vsOTTL32.93
Mar 29, 2025vsBOSW23.23
Apr 1, 2025@STLL12.74
Apr 4, 2025vsCARW52.85
Apr 6, 2025vsFLAW22.77
Apr 8, 2025@MTLL12.98
Apr 10, 2025@FLAL12.56
Apr 11, 2025@TBLW42.61
Apr 14, 2025vsDALW62.86
Apr 16, 2025@NJDW52.60
Apr 17, 2025@TORL32.71
Oct 9, 2025vsMTLL13.01
Oct 11, 2025vsTORW63.32
Oct 13, 2025@TORW33.30
Oct 15, 2025vsFLAW43.18
Oct 17, 2025vsTBLW22.84
Oct 19, 2025vsEDMW43.20
Oct 22, 2025@BUFL22.87
Oct 23, 2025@NYIL22.88
Oct 25, 2025vsSTLW63.03
Oct 28, 2025@STLW52.99
Oct 30, 2025@LAKW42.91
Oct 31, 2025@ANAL23.25
Nov 2, 2025@SJSW33.27
Nov 4, 2025@VGKL02.93
Nov 7, 2025vsNYRL13.02
Nov 9, 2025vsCHIL13.23
Nov 13, 2025vsANAW63.26
Nov 15, 2025vsBUFL42.91
Nov 16, 2025@NYRW22.94
Nov 18, 2025vsSEAW43.10
Nov 20, 2025vsNYIL02.98
Nov 22, 2025vsCBJW43.00
Nov 24, 2025@NJDL32.96
Nov 26, 2025vsNSHL33.16
Nov 28, 2025vsTBLL32.82
Nov 29, 2025@BOSL22.94
Dec 2, 2025vsBOSW52.96
Dec 4, 2025@CBJL52.93
Dec 6, 2025@SEAW43.03
Dec 8, 2025@VANW43.43
Dec 10, 2025@CGYW43.00
Dec 11, 2025@EDML13.18
Dec 13, 2025@CHIW43.12
Dec 16, 2025vsNYIW32.93
Dec 17, 2025vsUTAL13.01
Dec 20, 2025@WSHW52.87
Dec 21, 2025vsWSHW32.97
Dec 23, 2025vsDALW42.86
Dec 27, 2025@CARL22.77
Dec 28, 2025vsTORW33.36
Dec 31, 2025vsWPGW23.10
Jan 1, 2026@PITL33.06
Jan 3, 2026vsPITL13.16
Jan 5, 2026@OTTW52.86
Jan 8, 2026vsVANW53.48
Jan 10, 2026@MTLW42.90
Jan 12, 2026vsCARW42.81
Jan 13, 2026@BOSL02.97
Jan 16, 2026vsSJSW43.32
Jan 18, 2026vsOTTW42.94
Jan 21, 2026@TORW23.32
Jan 22, 2026@MINL32.91
Jan 24, 2026@WPGW52.99
Jan 27, 2026vsLAKL13.02
Jan 29, 2026vsWSHL32.97
Jan 31, 2026vsCOLL02.75
Feb 2, 2026@COLW22.66
Feb 4, 2026@UTAL12.95
Feb 26, 2026@OTTW22.90
Feb 28, 2026@CARL22.77
Mar 2, 2026@NSHW43.08
Mar 4, 2026vsVGKL32.96
Mar 6, 2026vsFLAL13.22
Mar 8, 2026@NJDW32.96
Mar 10, 2026@FLAL33.13
Mar 12, 2026@TBLL12.79
Mar 14, 2026@DALL22.83
Mar 16, 2026vsCGYW53.05
Mar 19, 2026vsMTLW32.98
Mar 21, 2026vsBOSL23.01
Mar 24, 2026vsOTTL22.97
Mar 27, 2026@BUFW52.83
Mar 28, 2026vsPHIL32.88
Mar 31, 2026@PITL13.09
Apr 2, 2026@PHIW42.80
Apr 4, 2026@NYRL12.96
Apr 5, 2026vsMINL42.96
Apr 7, 2026vsCBJL33.02
Apr 9, 2026vsPHIW62.83
Apr 11, 2026vsNJDL33.02
Apr 13, 2026@TBLL32.76
Apr 15, 2026@FLAL13.16
Oct 2, 2026vsNYRL03.14
Oct 4, 2026vsWPGL23.24
Oct 6, 2026vsOTTW53.11
Oct 9, 2026vsSEAL33.26
Oct 10, 2026@MTLL03.20

Read next

Method

Read against .

  • Goals are the final score’s, as the league’s standings count them: a game decided in a shootout gives its winner one goal, so it reads as a one-goal game.
  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.17 in 2024-25, plus 0.05 in 2025-26, plus 0.15 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 65% in 2024-25, 60% in 2025-26, 18% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
  • 2 games in 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither on a back-to-back nor with a day off or more, and sit out.
  • Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 4, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 10.