The Red Wings' goal differential on a back-to-back and with a day off or more
, ,
Through the Red Wings' game on Oct 4, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Red Wings were 1.32 goals under on a back-to-back and 0.20 goals over with a day off or more over their last 165 games, 24 games against 139. The plain averages are -1.63 and 0.05, a difference of 1.68.
The Red Wings' −1.51 on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more over expected ranks 32nd of the 32 teams with 10 games on each side over their last 165 games through Oct 4, 2026.
goal differential a game over expected
on a back-to-back
−1.32
with a day off or more
+0.20
-50
A −1.51 difference in goal differential over expected on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more is rare: shuffle which games were on a back-to-back and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
-1.63
0.05
-50
A −1.68 difference in goal differential on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more is rare: shuffle which games were on a back-to-back and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
on a back-to-backwith a day off or more
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goal differential | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2024 | vs NSH | W | 3 | 0.56 | |
| Oct 14, 2024 | @ NYR | L | -3 | -0.39 | |
| Oct 17, 2024 | vsNYR | L | -3 | 0.12 | |
| Oct 19, 2024 | @NSH | W | 3 | 0.04 | |
| Oct 22, 2024 | @ NYI | W | 1 | -0.13 | |
| Oct 24, 2024 | vs NJD | W | 2 | -0.09 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ BUF | L | -2 | -0.22 | |
| Oct 27, 2024 | vs EDM | L | -1 | -0.22 | |
| Oct 30, 2024 | vs WPG | L | -4 | -0.54 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vsBUF | W | 1 | 0.24 | |
| Nov 6, 2024 | @ CHI | W | 3 | 0.15 | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ TOR | L | -2 | -0.70 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vsNYR | L | -4 | 0.14 | |
| Nov 13, 2024 | @ PIT | W | 1 | -0.00 | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | @ ANA | L | -2 | -0.02 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ LAK | L | -3 | -0.75 | |
| Nov 18, 2024 | @ SJS | L | -1 | 0.54 | |
| Nov 21, 2024 | vsNYI | W | 1 | 0.39 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs BOS | L | -1 | 0.54 | |
| Nov 25, 2024 | @NYI | W | 2 | -0.15 | |
| Nov 27, 2024 | vs CGY | W | 1 | 0.20 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vsNJD | L | -1 | -0.03 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs VAN | L | -1 | 0.27 | |
| Dec 3, 2024 | @BOS | L | -1 | 0.02 | |
| Dec 5, 2024 | @ OTT | L | -1 | -0.49 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs COL | L | -1 | -0.32 | |
| Dec 9, 2024 | @BUF | W | 1 | -0.28 | |
| Dec 12, 2024 | @ PHI | L | -3 | 0.05 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vsTOR | W | 2 | -0.25 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vsPHI | W | 2 | 0.48 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs MTL | L | -1 | 0.28 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @MTL | L | -4 | -0.18 | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | vs STL | L | -4 | -0.13 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vsTOR | L | -3 | -0.17 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs WSH | W | 2 | -0.40 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vsPIT | W | 2 | 0.50 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | @ CBJ | W | 1 | -0.51 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @WPG | W | 2 | -1.16 | |
| Jan 7, 2025 | vsOTT | W | 1 | -0.01 | |
| Jan 10, 2025 | vsCHI | W | 2 | 0.69 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs SEA | W | 4 | 0.18 | |
| Jan 14, 2025 | vsSJS | L | -3 | 1.10 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | @ FLA | W | 3 | -1.07 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ TBL | L | -4 | -0.99 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | @ DAL | L | -3 | -0.74 | |
| Jan 21, 2025 | @PHI | L | -1 | 0.02 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | vsMTL | W | 2 | 0.23 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | vsTBL | W | 2 | -0.59 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | vsLAK | W | 3 | -0.34 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | @EDM | W | 1 | -0.77 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | @CGY | W | 2 | -0.34 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | @VAN | W | 1 | -0.28 | |
| Feb 4, 2025 | @SEA | W | 1 | -0.28 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vsTBL | L | -3 | -0.49 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | vs MIN | L | -1 | 0.16 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | vsANA | W | 1 | 0.44 | |
| Feb 25, 2025 | @MIN | W | 1 | -0.40 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | vsCBJ | L | -3 | 0.08 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | @CBJ | L | -2 | -0.45 | |
| Mar 4, 2025 | vs CAR | L | -1 | -0.26 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | vs UTA | L | -2 | 0.21 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | @WSH | L | -3 | -0.83 | |
| Mar 10, 2025 | @OTT | L | -1 | -0.49 | |
| Mar 12, 2025 | vsBUF | W | 4 | 0.18 | |
| Mar 14, 2025 | @CAR | L | -2 | -0.76 | |
| Mar 16, 2025 | vs VGK | W | 3 | -0.38 | |
| Mar 18, 2025 | @WSH | L | -3 | -0.83 | |
| Mar 22, 2025 | @VGK | L | -3 | -0.79 | |
| Mar 24, 2025 | @UTA | W | 4 | -0.43 | |
| Mar 25, 2025 | @COL | L | -3 | -0.80 | |
| Mar 27, 2025 | vsOTT | L | -1 | 0.03 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | vsBOS | W | 1 | 0.50 | |
| Apr 1, 2025 | @STL | L | -1 | -0.71 | |
| Apr 4, 2025 | vsCAR | W | 2 | -0.31 | |
| Apr 6, 2025 | vsFLA | W | 1 | -0.52 | |
| Apr 8, 2025 | @MTL | L | -3 | -0.20 | |
| Apr 10, 2025 | @FLA | L | -3 | -0.97 | |
| Apr 11, 2025 | @TBL | W | 1 | -1.09 | |
| Apr 14, 2025 | vsDAL | W | 2 | -0.31 | |
| Apr 16, 2025 | @NJD | W | 3 | -0.63 | |
| Apr 17, 2025 | @TOR | L | -1 | -0.72 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsMTL | L | -4 | -0.27 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vsTOR | W | 3 | 0.26 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | @TOR | W | 1 | 0.15 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vsFLA | W | 3 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vsTBL | W | 1 | -0.56 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vsEDM | W | 2 | -0.09 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | @BUF | L | -2 | -0.58 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @NYI | L | -5 | -0.06 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsSTL | W | 2 | 0.18 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @STL | W | 3 | 0.01 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @LAK | W | 1 | 0.04 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | @ANA | L | -3 | 0.02 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @SJS | W | 1 | 0.17 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @VGK | L | -1 | -0.40 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vsNYR | L | -3 | 0.08 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsCHI | L | -4 | 0.57 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vsANA | W | 3 | 0.07 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsBUF | L | -1 | -0.45 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @NYR | W | 1 | -0.14 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vsSEA | W | 2 | 0.27 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vsNYI | L | -5 | 0.09 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsCBJ | W | 1 | -0.09 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @NJD | L | -1 | -0.00 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vsNSH | L | -3 | 0.21 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsTBL | L | -3 | -0.49 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @BOS | L | -1 | -0.35 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vsBOS | W | 1 | -0.23 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | @CBJ | L | -1 | -0.20 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @SEA | W | 1 | 0.14 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @VAN | W | 4 | 0.62 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | @CGY | W | 1 | 0.22 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @EDM | L | -3 | -0.15 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @CHI | W | 4 | 0.29 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vsNYI | W | 1 | -0.02 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vsUTA | L | -3 | -0.17 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @WSH | W | 3 | -0.42 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vsWSH | W | 1 | -0.24 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vsDAL | W | 1 | -0.42 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @CAR | L | -3 | -0.77 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsTOR | W | 1 | 0.30 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vsWPG | W | 1 | 0.20 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @PIT | L | -1 | -0.36 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsPIT | L | -3 | -0.18 | |
| Jan 5, 2026 | @OTT | W | 2 | -0.48 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vsVAN | W | 4 | 0.77 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @MTL | W | 4 | -0.55 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vsCAR | W | 1 | -0.69 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | @BOS | L | -3 | -0.31 | |
| Jan 16, 2026 | vsSJS | W | 2 | 0.30 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vsOTT | W | 1 | -0.32 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @TOR | W | 1 | 0.15 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @MIN | L | -1 | -0.47 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @WPG | W | 4 | -0.00 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | vsLAK | L | -2 | 0.24 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsWSH | L | -1 | -0.21 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsCOL | L | -5 | -0.74 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | @COL | W | 2 | -1.00 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @UTA | L | -3 | -0.32 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @OTT | W | 1 | -0.46 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @CAR | L | -3 | -0.77 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | @NSH | W | 2 | -0.02 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | vsVGK | L | -1 | -0.26 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsFLA | L | -2 | 0.17 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @NJD | W | 3 | -0.07 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | @FLA | L | -1 | 0.01 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | @TBL | L | -3 | -0.64 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @DAL | L | -1 | -0.54 | |
| Mar 16, 2026 | vsCGY | W | 3 | 0.33 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | vsMTL | W | 2 | -0.37 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vsBOS | L | -2 | -0.18 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vsOTT | L | -1 | -0.28 | |
| Mar 27, 2026 | @BUF | W | 3 | -0.67 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vsPHI | L | -2 | -0.11 | |
| Mar 31, 2026 | @PIT | L | -4 | -0.31 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | @PHI | W | 2 | -0.32 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @NYR | L | -3 | -0.07 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | vsMIN | L | -1 | -0.33 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | vsCBJ | L | -1 | -0.06 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 3 | -0.19 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vsNJD | L | -2 | 0.16 | |
| Apr 13, 2026 | @TBL | L | -1 | -0.67 | |
| Apr 15, 2026 | @FLA | L | -7 | 0.11 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vsNYR | L | -2 | -0.01 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vsWPG | L | -1 | 0.24 |
Method
- Goals are the final score’s, as the league’s standings count them: a game decided in a shootout gives its winner one goal, so it reads as a one-goal game.
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.33 in 2024-25, plus 0.10 in 2025-26, plus 0.30 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 76% in 2024-25, 70% in 2025-26, 22% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 2 games in 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither on a back-to-back nor with a day off or more, and sit out.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 4, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 4.