The Blues' penalty minutes vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Blues were 1.9 penalty minutes over vs a division opponent and 1.6 penalty minutes under vs a team outside the division over their last 165 games, 61 games against 104. The plain averages are 10.1 and 6.7, a difference of 3.4. All 7 playoff games were vs a division opponent.
The Blues' +3.5 vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division over expected ranks 3rd of the 32 teams with 10 games on each side over their last 165 games.
penalty minutes a game over expected
vs a division opponent
+1.9
vs a team outside the division
−1.6
02040
A +3.5 difference in penalty minutes over expected vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a division opponent and it comes up 3 times in 100.
plain
10.1
6.7
02040
A +3.4 difference in penalty minutes vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a division opponent and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
vs a division opponentvs a team outside the division
| Side | Date | Game | Result | penalty minutes | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ NYI | L | 4 | 7.2 | |
| Nov 25, 2024 | @ NYR | W | 8 | 8.1 | |
| Nov 27, 2024 | @ NJD | W | 8 | 8.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs PHI | L | 4 | 7.6 | |
| Dec 3, 2024 | @ WPG | W | 4 | 9.2 | |
| Dec 5, 2024 | @ CGY | W | 8 | 9.4 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ EDM | L | 2 | 8.4 | |
| Dec 10, 2024 | @ VAN | W | 8 | 9.0 | |
| Dec 12, 2024 | vs SJS | L | 11 | 8.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | @ DAL | L | 10 | 8.4 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vsNYR | W | 0 | 7.8 | |
| Dec 17, 2024 | vsNJD | L | 14 | 7.5 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | @ TBL | L | 9 | 9.1 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | @ FLA | L | 4 | 10.0 | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | @ DET | W | 2 | 8.4 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs NSH | W | 15 | 8.7 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs BUF | L | 6 | 9.0 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | @ CHI | W | 15 | 7.8 | |
| Jan 3, 2025 | vs OTT | W | 7 | 9.1 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @ CBJ | L | 9 | 8.0 | |
| Jan 7, 2025 | @ MIN | L | 0 | 8.1 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | vs ANA | W | 6 | 7.9 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vsCBJ | L | 4 | 7.8 | |
| Jan 14, 2025 | vsCGY | W | 4 | 9.1 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | vsCGY | W | 9 | 9.0 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ UTA | L | 11 | 9.3 | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | @ VGK | W | 4 | 7.2 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | vsVGK | L | 4 | 6.8 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | vsDAL | L | 6 | 8.1 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | vsVAN | L | 9 | 8.7 | |
| Jan 31, 2025 | @ COL | L | 8 | 7.9 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | @UTA | W | 13 | 9.3 | |
| Feb 4, 2025 | vsEDM | L | 6 | 8.0 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | vsFLA | L | 7 | 9.6 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vsCHI | W | 0 | 7.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | vsWPG | L | 6 | 8.8 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | vsCOL | W | 9 | 7.6 | |
| Feb 25, 2025 | vs SEA | W | 4 | 8.0 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | @ WSH | W | 4 | 8.9 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vs LAK | W | 4 | 7.8 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | @DAL | L | 8 | 8.4 | |
| Mar 5, 2025 | @LAK | W | 4 | 8.2 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | @ANA | W | 8 | 8.3 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @LAK | L | 4 | 8.2 | |
| Mar 13, 2025 | @ PIT | L | 0 | 7.9 | |
| Mar 15, 2025 | @MIN | W | 2 | 8.1 | |
| Mar 16, 2025 | vsANA | W | 13 | 7.8 | |
| Mar 18, 2025 | @NSH | W | 18 | 9.1 | |
| Mar 20, 2025 | vsVAN | W | 2 | 8.8 | |
| Mar 22, 2025 | vsCHI | W | 10 | 7.5 | |
| Mar 23, 2025 | vsNSH | W | 38 | 8.4 | |
| Mar 25, 2025 | vs MTL | W | 8 | 8.2 | |
| Mar 27, 2025 | @NSH | W | 11 | 9.2 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | @COL | W | 2 | 8.0 | |
| Apr 1, 2025 | vsDET | W | 4 | 8.0 | |
| Apr 3, 2025 | vsPIT | W | 2 | 7.5 | |
| Apr 5, 2025 | vsCOL | W | 6 | 7.6 | |
| Apr 7, 2025 | @WPG | L | 2 | 9.2 | |
| Apr 9, 2025 | @EDM | L | 7 | 8.3 | |
| Apr 12, 2025 | @SEA | L | 4 | 8.3 | |
| Apr 15, 2025 | vsUTA | W | 18 | 8.9 | |
| Apr 19, 2025 | @WPG | L | 58 | 8.4 | |
| Apr 21, 2025 | @WPG | L | 4 | 9.2 | |
| Apr 24, 2025 | vsWPG | W | 22 | 8.5 | |
| Apr 27, 2025 | vsWPG | W | 24 | 8.5 | |
| Apr 30, 2025 | @WPG | L | 10 | 9.1 | |
| May 2, 2025 | vsWPG | W | 30 | 8.4 | |
| May 4, 2025 | @WPG | L | 4 | 9.2 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsMIN | L | 6 | 8.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @CGY | W | 17 | 8.8 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | @VAN | W | 2 | 8.1 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vsCHI | L | 6 | 7.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsDAL | W | 4 | 7.6 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vsLAK | L | 11 | 7.1 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vsUTA | L | 12 | 8.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @DET | L | 6 | 7.9 | |
| Oct 27, 2025 | @PIT | L | 2 | 8.0 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vsDET | L | 9 | 7.5 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | vsVAN | L | 6 | 7.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @CBJ | L | 11 | 6.8 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vsEDM | W | 2 | 8.2 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | @WSH | L | 9 | 8.2 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @BUF | W | 11 | 9.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsSEA | L | 6 | 7.0 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vsCGY | W | 4 | 8.6 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | vsPHI | L | 2 | 9.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsVGK | L | 6 | 7.1 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ TOR | L | 6 | 7.4 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @PHI | L | 4 | 9.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @NYI | W | 6 | 7.7 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @NYR | L | 0 | 6.9 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | @NJD | L | 4 | 6.9 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsOTT | W | 6 | 8.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUTA | W | 17 | 8.0 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | vsANA | L | 6 | 8.7 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | @ BOS | L | 4 | 9.5 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @OTT | W | 18 | 8.7 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @MTL | W | 4 | 9.6 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | vsBOS | L | 6 | 9.1 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @NSH | L | 13 | 7.6 | |
| Dec 12, 2025 | vsCHI | W | 12 | 7.3 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | vsNSH | L | 17 | 7.2 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vsWPG | W | 6 | 6.9 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vsNYR | L | 6 | 6.4 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @FLA | W | 6 | 10.0 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | @TBL | L | 8 | 11.3 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vsNSH | W | 4 | 7.4 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vsBUF | L | 6 | 9.3 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | @COL | L | 6 | 7.7 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vsVGK | W | 4 | 7.1 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsMTL | W | 8 | 9.2 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @CHI | L | 6 | 7.8 | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | @UTA | L | 20 | 8.3 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @VGK | L | 7 | 7.4 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | vs CAR | W | 6 | 7.5 | |
| Jan 16, 2026 | vsTBL | W | 6 | 10.9 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @EDM | L | 6 | 8.5 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | @WPG | L | 6 | 7.3 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | @DAL | L | 10 | 7.9 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsLAK | L | 11 | 7.1 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | vsDAL | L | 6 | 7.5 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsFLA | W | 23 | 9.3 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsCBJ | L | 4 | 6.5 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | @NSH | L | 4 | 7.8 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @DAL | L | 6 | 7.9 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vsSEA | W | 4 | 7.0 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsNJD | L | 4 | 6.5 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @MIN | W | 4 | 8.4 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | @SEA | W | 8 | 7.3 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | @SJS | W | 14 | 7.5 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @ANA | W | 27 | 8.8 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vsNYI | L | 8 | 7.3 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | @CAR | W | 4 | 8.0 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vsEDM | W | 6 | 8.2 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | @WPG | L | 6 | 7.3 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | @CGY | L | 14 | 8.8 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @VAN | W | 4 | 8.0 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vsWSH | W | 15 | 7.7 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | vsSJS | W | 9 | 7.2 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vsTOR | W | 6 | 7.0 | |
| Mar 30, 2026 | @SJS | L | 8 | 7.6 | |
| Apr 1, 2026 | @LAK | L | 11 | 7.5 | |
| Apr 3, 2026 | @ANA | W | 8 | 9.1 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @COL | W | 6 | 7.7 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | vsCOL | L | 2 | 7.3 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | vsWPG | L | 2 | 7.0 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @CHI | W | 4 | 7.9 | |
| Apr 13, 2026 | vsMIN | W | 13 | 7.9 | |
| Apr 14, 2026 | vsPIT | W | 4 | 7.6 | |
| Apr 16, 2026 | @UTA | W | 2 | 8.6 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @DAL | W | 24 | 8.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @COL | L | 8 | 9.1 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @CHI | L | 4 | 9.0 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vsSJS | L | 6 | 9.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsCBJ | W | 9 | 8.8 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @OTT | W | 13 | 9.7 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @MIN | L | 8 | 9.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @NSH | L | 2 | 8.9 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vsWPG | W | 6 | 8.9 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vsVGK | W | 0 | 9.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsCAR | L | 0 | 9.0 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vsMTL | L | 6 | 9.2 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vsBOS | W | 2 | 9.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @DET | W | 4 | 9.1 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @NYR | L | 6 | 8.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.3 in 2024-25, minus 0.3 in 2025-26, minus 0.2 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 64% in 2024-25, 71% in 2025-26, 14% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.