The Blackhawks' goal differential vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division
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Through the Blackhawks' game on Apr 15, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Blackhawks were 0.76 goals over vs a division opponent and 0.68 goals under vs a team outside the division in 2025-26, 26 games against 56. The plain averages are 0.12 and -1.16, a difference of 1.28. All 3 games without Tyler Bertuzzi were vs a team outside the division.
The Blackhawks' +1.44 vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division over expected ranks 1st of the 32 teams with 10 games on each side in 2025-26 through Apr 15.
goal differential a game over expected
A +1.44 difference in goal differential over expected vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is rare: shuffle which games were vs a division opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +1.28 difference in goal differential vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is rare: shuffle which games were vs a division opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goal differential | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2025 | @ FLA | L | -1 | -0.42 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ BOS | L | -1 | -0.78 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs MTL | L | -1 | -0.75 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | vs UTA | W | 2 | -0.68 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | @ STL | W | 5 | -0.45 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs VAN | L | -1 | 0.42 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs ANA | W | 1 | -0.33 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @ TBL | W | 1 | -1.14 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs LAK | L | -2 | -0.19 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vs OTT | W | 4 | -0.80 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ WPG | L | -3 | -0.31 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ EDM | L | -1 | -0.62 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ SEA | L | -2 | -0.24 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | @VAN | W | 3 | 0.20 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @ CGY | W | 4 | -0.27 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ DET | W | 4 | -0.57 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs NJD | L | -1 | -0.29 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs TOR | W | 1 | -0.13 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vsCGY | W | 3 | -0.10 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vsSEA | L | -1 | -0.11 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | @ BUF | L | -6 | -0.95 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs COL | L | -1 | -1.23 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs MIN | L | -1 | -0.76 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs NSH | L | -1 | -0.25 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsANA | W | 2 | -0.35 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | @ VGK | L | -1 | -0.83 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | @LAK | W | 1 | -0.39 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @LAK | L | -6 | -0.27 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ANA | L | -6 | -0.36 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | vs NYR | W | 3 | -0.46 | |
| Dec 12, 2025 | @STL | L | -1 | -0.35 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vsDET | L | -4 | -0.29 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | @TOR | L | -1 | -0.25 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @MTL | L | -3 | -0.87 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @OTT | L | -2 | -0.84 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs PHI | L | -2 | -0.54 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @ DAL | W | 1 | -1.00 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs PIT | L | -4 | -0.60 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs NYI | L | -1 | -0.41 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsDAL | W | 1 | -0.85 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ WSH | W | 1 | -0.82 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsVGK | W | 1 | -0.72 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vsSTL | W | 4 | -0.29 | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | vsWSH | L | -4 | -0.58 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @NSH | W | 3 | -0.47 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vsEDM | L | -3 | -0.44 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vsCGY | L | -2 | -0.01 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsBOS | L | -3 | -0.60 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vsWPG | W | 2 | -0.25 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 1 | -1.27 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | vsTBL | L | -1 | -0.96 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsFLA | L | -4 | -0.22 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | @MIN | L | -1 | -0.90 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @PIT | L | -4 | -0.74 | |
| Jan 30, 2026 | vs CBJ | L | -2 | -0.47 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vs SJS | W | 3 | -0.14 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @CBJ | L | -4 | -0.58 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @NSH | L | -2 | -0.38 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @COL | L | -2 | -1.36 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @UTA | W | 4 | -0.87 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | @WPG | L | -1 | -0.35 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsVAN | L | -3 | 0.46 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @DAL | L | -1 | -0.97 | |
| Mar 9, 2026 | vsUTA | W | 1 | -0.67 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | @UTA | W | 1 | -0.82 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @VGK | L | -4 | -0.79 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vsMIN | L | -1 | -0.76 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | @MIN | W | 1 | -0.94 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vsCOL | L | -3 | -1.20 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vsNSH | L | -1 | -0.25 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | @NYI | W | 1 | -0.59 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | @PHI | L | -4 | -0.65 | |
| Mar 27, 2026 | @NYR | L | -5 | -0.47 | |
| Mar 29, 2026 | @NJD | L | -2 | -0.42 | |
| Mar 31, 2026 | vsWPG | L | -1 | -0.20 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | @EDM | L | -2 | -0.60 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @SEA | W | 2 | -0.31 | |
| Apr 6, 2026 | @SJS | L | -1 | -0.22 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | vsCAR | L | -5 | -1.02 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vsSTL | L | -2 | -0.18 | |
| Apr 13, 2026 | vsBUF | L | -4 | -0.84 | |
| Apr 15, 2026 | vsSJS | W | 3 | -0.14 |
Method
- Goals are the final score’s, as the league’s standings count them: a game decided in a shootout gives its winner one goal, so it reads as a one-goal game.
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.10 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 70% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.