Putting Up Numbers· NHL

Mammoth @ Canadiens

Thu, Nov 5

The odds have it Canadiens 3.22, Mammoth 3.38.Expected goals from DraftKings’ moneyline and total on ESPN’s scoreboard, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Mammoth at Canadiens: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameMammoth16 gamesCanadiens15 games
+0.38+0.25
+0.14−0.02
+3.1−0.3
−2.7+1.5
+0.57−0.31
+0.23+0.04
+0.5+1.7

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the five biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Canadiens

  • The Canadiens have won 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →

The series

  • The Canadiens lead the series 3–1 since 2024-25. The Canadiens have won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • The Canadiens have won 7 of their last 10.countits form →
  • Against a team over .500, the Canadiens' shots against are 8.8 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • At home, the Canadiens' penalty minutes are 3.4 over expected in 8 games. 8 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • On the road, the Mammoth's power-play goals are 0.75 over expected in 10 games. A +0.97 difference in power-play goals over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 8 times in 100.thinthe split →
  • Against a team over .500, the Mammoth's penalty minutes are 4.1 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Nov 26, 2025at MammothCanadiens 4, Mammoth 3
Nov 8, 2025at CanadiensCanadiens 6, Mammoth 2
Jan 14, 2025at MammothCanadiens 5, Mammoth 3
Nov 26, 2024at CanadiensMammoth 3, Canadiens 2

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • Goals are the final score’s: a shootout gives its winner one goal, as the standings count it. Shots are shots on goal, and power-play goals allowed are the opponent’s.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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