The Vikings' points of margin with Jordan Mason and without Jordan Mason
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Vikings were 0.0 points under with Jordan Mason and 7.3 points over without Jordan Mason over their last 35 games, 19 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.9 and 8.2, a difference of 7.3. Both neutral-site games were with Jordan Mason. Both games after a bye were with Jordan Mason.
Jordan Mason, running back: 905 rushing yards, 197 carries and 14 receptions in 19 of those 35 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jordan Mason
−0.0
without Jordan Mason
+7.3
-20020
A −7.3 difference in points of margin over expected with Jordan Mason vs without Jordan Mason is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.9
8.2
-20020
A −7.3 difference in points of margin with Jordan Mason vs without Jordan Mason is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jordan Masonwithout Jordan Mason
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs IND | W | 8 | 8.4 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ JAX | W | 5 | 8.7 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ TEN | W | 10 | 9.1 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ CHI | W | 3 | 4.5 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs ARI | W | 1 | 4.0 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 21 | 5.7 | |
| Dec 16, 2024 | vsCHI | W | 18 | 6.3 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ SEA | W | 3 | 1.3 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs GB | W | 2 | -0.9 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ DET | L | -22 | -6.1 | |
| Jan 13, 2025 | vs LA (neutral) | L | -18 | 4.5 | |
| Sep 8, 2025 | @CHI | W | 3 | -2.4 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsATL | L | -16 | 6.6 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs CIN | W | 38 | 2.9 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs PIT (neutral) | L | -3 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs CLE (neutral) | W | 4 | 6.4 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs PHI | L | -6 | 0.9 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @ LAC | L | -27 | 0.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @DET | W | 3 | -5.1 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs BAL | L | -8 | 2.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsCHI | L | -2 | 1.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @GB | L | -17 | -0.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @SEA | L | -26 | -11.5 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs WAS | W | 31 | 4.3 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ DAL | W | 8 | 1.2 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ NYG | W | 3 | 1.4 | |
| Dec 25, 2025 | vsDET | W | 13 | -2.1 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsGB | W | 13 | 0.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsGB | W | 17 | 0.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @CHI | W | 6 | -0.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ TB | W | 7 | -0.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 5 | 4.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NO | W | 10 | 3.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsIND | W | 6 | 5.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @DET | L | -4 | 1.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.3 in 2025, plus 0.4 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2025, 28% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 11 games in 2024 are neither with Jordan Mason nor without Jordan Mason: Jordan Mason had no game for the team that season, and sit out.