The Texans' turnovers with Nico Collins and without Nico Collins
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Texans were 0.2 turnovers under with Nico Collins and 0.0 turnovers over without Nico Collins over their last 35 games, 30 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.9 and 1.2, a difference of 0.3. Both games after a bye were with Nico Collins. Both games on a short week were with Nico Collins.
Nico Collins, receiver: 2,109 receiving yards, 146 receptions and 232 targets in 30 of those 35 games.
turnovers a game over expected
with Nico Collins
−0.2
without Nico Collins
+0.0
02
A −0.3 difference in turnovers over expected with Nico Collins vs without Nico Collins is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.9
1.2
024
A −0.3 difference in turnovers with Nico Collins vs without Nico Collins is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Nico Collinswithout Nico Collins
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2024 | @ DAL | W | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs TEN | L | 2 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ JAX | W | 0 | 0.9 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs MIA | W | 1 | 1.0 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ KC | L | 2 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 25, 2024 | vs BAL | L | 1 | 1.1 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @TEN | W | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vs LAC | W | 3 | 1.1 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @KC | L | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ LA | L | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | vs TB | L | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @JAX | L | 3 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vsTEN | W | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @BAL | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | @ SEA | L | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs SF | W | 1 | 1.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs DEN | L | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsJAX | W | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @TEN | W | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs BUF | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ IND | W | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @KC | W | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs ARI | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs LV | W | 0 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @LAC | W | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsIND | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | @ PIT | W | 3 | 1.2 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @ NE | L | 5 | 1.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsBUF | L | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CIN | L | 0 | 1.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @IND | L | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vsDAL | L | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @TEN | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsJAX (neutral) | W | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NYG | L | 0 | 1.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.0 in 2024, plus 0.0 in 2025, plus 0.0 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 43% in 2024, 15% in 2025, 2% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.