The Texans' rushing yards with Nico Collins and without Nico Collins
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Texans were 9.8 yards under with Nico Collins and 41.6 yards under without Nico Collins in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 92.6 and 65.0, a difference of 27.6. All 4 second-half games were with Nico Collins.
Nico Collins, receiver: 329 receiving yards, 24 receptions and 35 targets in 5 games this season, 3% of HOU’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games without Nico Collins is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +31.8 difference in rushing yards over expected with Nico Collins vs without Nico Collins is about what you’d expect.
A +27.6 difference in rushing yards with Nico Collins vs without Nico Collins is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Nico Collins and it comes up 17 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 124 | 87.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CIN | L | 60 | 104.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ IND | L | 70 | 109.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DAL | L | 62 | 122.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 79 | 108.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | W | 114 | 82.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NYG | L | 84 | 111.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 32% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.