The Texans' points with Nico Collins and without Nico Collins
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Texans were 5.8 points over with Nico Collins and 13.2 points under without Nico Collins in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 28.4 and 11.5, a difference of 16.9. All 4 second-half games were with Nico Collins.
Nico Collins, receiver: 329 receiving yards, 24 receptions and 35 targets in 5 games this season.
2 games without Nico Collins is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A +19.0 difference in points over expected with Nico Collins vs without Nico Collins is unusual: shuffle which games were with Nico Collins and it comes up 5 times in 100.
A +16.9 difference in points with Nico Collins vs without Nico Collins is unusual: shuffle which games were with Nico Collins and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 31 | 23.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CIN | L | 6 | 24.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ IND | L | 17 | 24.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DAL | L | 30 | 23.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 26 | 23.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | W | 34 | 19.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NYG | L | 21 | 23.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.