The Texans' points of margin with Tank Dell and without Tank Dell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Texans were 0.3 points under with Tank Dell and 0.2 points over without Tank Dell over their last 35 games, 6 games against 10. The plain averages are 2.7 and -0.8, a difference of 3.5. Expected was 3.9 points higher with Tank Dell than without Tank Dell. Both playoff games were without Tank Dell.
Tank Dell, receiver: 316 receiving yards, 17 receptions and 26 targets in 6 of those 35 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Tank Dell
−0.3
without Tank Dell
+0.2
-20020
A −0.4 difference in points of margin over expected with Tank Dell vs without Tank Dell is about what you’d expect.
plain
2.7
-0.8
-20020
A +3.5 difference in points of margin with Tank Dell vs without Tank Dell is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Tank Dellwithout Tank Dell
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2024 | @ DAL | W | 24 | 1.3 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs TEN | L | -5 | 9.6 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ JAX | W | 3 | 4.8 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs MIA | W | 8 | 3.5 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ KC | L | -8 | -3.9 | |
| Dec 25, 2024 | vs BAL | L | -29 | -4.1 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @TEN | W | 9 | 5.1 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vs LAC | W | 20 | -3.5 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @KC | L | -9 | -3.8 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ LA | L | -5 | -4.0 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | vs TB | L | -1 | 10.5 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @JAX | L | -7 | -1.0 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vsTEN | W | 26 | 14.1 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @BAL | W | 34 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | @ SEA | L | -8 | -6.1 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs SF | W | 11 | 4.2 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs DEN | L | -3 | 7.1 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsJAX | W | 7 | 1.7 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @TEN | W | 3 | 12.2 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs BUF | W | 4 | 4.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ IND | W | 4 | 0.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @KC | W | 10 | 3.2 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs ARI | W | 20 | 11.4 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs LV | W | 2 | 18.7 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @LAC | W | 4 | 4.8 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsIND | W | 8 | 4.5 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | @ PIT | W | 24 | 3.8 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @ NE | L | -12 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsBUF | L | -5 | -2.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CIN | L | -14 | -1.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @IND | L | -2 | 2.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vsDAL | L | -4 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @TEN | W | 23 | 1.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsJAX (neutral) | W | 3 | -5.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NYG | L | -6 | 2.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 in 2024, plus 0.4 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2024, 28% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 19 games in 2025 are neither with Tank Dell nor without Tank Dell: Tank Dell had no game for the team that season, and sit out.