The Texans' points of margin with David Montgomery and since David Montgomery’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Texans were 0.7 points under with David Montgomery and 0.1 points under since David Montgomery’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are -0.4 and -1.5, a difference of 1.1. Expected was 1.7 points higher with David Montgomery than since David Montgomery’s last game. Both away games were with David Montgomery. All 3 first-half games were with David Montgomery.
David Montgomery, running back: 138 rushing yards, 52 carries and 7 receptions in 5 games this season.
2 games since David Montgomery’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −0.6 difference in points of margin over expected with David Montgomery vs since David Montgomery’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +1.1 difference in points of margin with David Montgomery vs since David Montgomery’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs BUF | L | -5 | -2.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CIN | L | -14 | -1.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ IND | L | -2 | 2.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DAL | L | -4 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 23 | 1.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | W | 3 | -5.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NYG | L | -6 | 2.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.