The Texans' points allowed with David Montgomery and since David Montgomery’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Texans were 1.3 points under with David Montgomery and 6.6 points over since David Montgomery’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 22.4 and 29.0, a difference of 6.6. Both away games were with David Montgomery. All 3 first-half games were with David Montgomery.
David Montgomery, running back: 138 rushing yards, 52 carries and 7 receptions in 5 games this season.
2 games since David Montgomery’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −7.9 difference in points allowed over expected with David Montgomery vs since David Montgomery’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −6.6 difference in points allowed with David Montgomery vs since David Montgomery’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 36 | 24.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CIN | L | 20 | 25.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ IND | L | 19 | 22.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DAL | L | 34 | 22.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 3 | 22.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | W | 31 | 23.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NYG | L | 27 | 21.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.