The Texans' carries with Tank Dell and without Tank Dell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Texans were 1.6 carries under with Tank Dell and 2.5 carries under without Tank Dell in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 25.0 and 23.7, a difference of 1.3. Both away games were without Tank Dell. All 3 division games were without Tank Dell. All 3 first-half games were without Tank Dell.
Tank Dell, receiver: 43 receiving yards, 1 reception and 1 target in 1 game this season, 4% of HOU’s carries in those games.
One game with Tank Dell is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Tank Dell
−1.6
without Tank Dell
−2.5
-505
plain
25.0
23.7
202530
The games
with Tank Dellwithout Tank Dell
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 32 | 24.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CIN | L | 18 | 26.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ IND | L | 21 | 26.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs DAL | L | 19 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 27 | 26.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | W | 25 | 25.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NYG | L | 25 | 26.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.