The Texans' carries with David Montgomery and since David Montgomery’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Texans were 3.0 carries under with David Montgomery and 0.8 carries under since David Montgomery’s last game over their last 35 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 23.4 and 25.0, a difference of 1.6. Both away games were with David Montgomery.
David Montgomery, running back: 138 rushing yards, 52 carries and 7 receptions in 5 of those 35 games, 44% of HOU’s carries in those games.
2 games since David Montgomery’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −2.1 difference in carries over expected with David Montgomery vs since David Montgomery’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −1.6 difference in carries with David Montgomery vs since David Montgomery’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2024 | @ DAL | W | 25 | 25.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs TEN | L | 17 | 29.1 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ JAX | W | 25 | 28.6 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs MIA | W | 20 | 25.0 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ KC | L | 17 | 26.0 | |
| Dec 25, 2024 | vs BAL | L | 17 | 23.0 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @TEN | W | 29 | 28.2 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vs LAC | W | 34 | 24.6 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @KC | L | 29 | 25.0 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ LA | L | 27 | 27.0 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | vs TB | L | 19 | 26.4 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @JAX | L | 19 | 25.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vsTEN | W | 35 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @BAL | W | 33 | 27.2 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | @ SEA | L | 17 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs SF | W | 36 | 26.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs DEN | L | 28 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsJAX | W | 22 | 26.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @TEN | W | 23 | 27.8 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs BUF | W | 26 | 27.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ IND | W | 34 | 27.3 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @KC | W | 31 | 27.3 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs ARI | W | 33 | 28.6 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs LV | W | 26 | 30.0 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @LAC | W | 34 | 26.7 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsIND | W | 32 | 27.9 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | @ PIT | W | 31 | 27.5 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @ NE | L | 22 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsBUF | L | 32 | 24.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs CIN | L | 18 | 26.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @IND | L | 21 | 26.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vsDAL | L | 19 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @TEN | W | 27 | 26.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsJAX (neutral) | W | 25 | 25.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NYG | L | 25 | 26.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 28 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with David Montgomery nor since David Montgomery’s last game: David Montgomery had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.