The Seahawks' rushing yards with Sam Darnold and without Sam Darnold
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Seahawks were 0.7 yards over with Sam Darnold and 20.3 yards over without Sam Darnold over their last 35 games, 26 games against 2. The plain averages are 119.4 and 129.5, a difference of 10.1. All 3 games on a short week were with Sam Darnold. All 3 playoff games were with Sam Darnold.
Sam Darnold, quarterback: 6,198 passing yards, 779 pass attempts and 506 completions in 27 of those 35 games, 6% of SEA’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games without Sam Darnold is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −19.6 difference in rushing yards over expected with Sam Darnold vs without Sam Darnold is about what you’d expect.
A −10.1 difference in rushing yards with Sam Darnold vs without Sam Darnold is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs ARI | W | 65 | 112.1 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ NYJ | W | 84 | 106.1 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ARI | W | 176 | 102.0 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs GB | L | 80 | 83.8 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs MIN | L | 59 | 80.4 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | @ CHI | W | 122 | 108.3 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ LA | W | 126 | 110.2 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs SF | L | 84 | 123.0 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ PIT | W | 117 | 119.8 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs NO | W | 87 | 125.1 | |
| Sep 25, 2025 | @ARI | W | 155 | 125.6 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs TB | L | 122 | 114.6 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ JAX | W | 60 | 108.7 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | vs HOU | W | 118 | 110.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ WAS | W | 88 | 138.1 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsARI | W | 198 | 125.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @LA | L | 135 | 116.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ TEN | W | 114 | 123.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsMIN | W | 125 | 126.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ ATL | W | 129 | 126.3 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs IND | W | 50 | 122.2 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vsLA | W | 171 | 116.9 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ CAR | W | 163 | 121.8 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @SF | W | 180 | 116.1 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsSF | W | 175 | 118.4 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsLA | W | 75 | 121.7 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vs NE (neutral) | W | 141 | 111.9 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | vsNE | W | 97 | 105.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ARI | W | 162 | 113.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @WAS | L | 44 | 120.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 138 | 117.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsSF | L | 89 | 105.4 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 113 | 118.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs KC | W | 153 | 105.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vsCHI | L | 81 | 109.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 49% in 2025, 32% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 7 games in 2024 are neither with Sam Darnold nor without Sam Darnold: Sam Darnold had no game for the team that season, and sit out.