The Seahawks' points of margin with Sam Darnold and without Sam Darnold
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Seahawks were 1.3 points under with Sam Darnold and 13.2 points over without Sam Darnold in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are -0.2 and 13.5, a difference of 13.7. All 4 second-half games were with Sam Darnold.
Sam Darnold, quarterback: 1,478 passing yards, 211 pass attempts and 127 completions in 7 games this season.
2 games without Sam Darnold is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −14.6 difference in points of margin over expected with Sam Darnold vs without Sam Darnold is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Sam Darnold and it comes up 17 times in 100.
A −13.7 difference in points of margin with Sam Darnold vs without Sam Darnold is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs NE | W | 3 | -1.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ ARI | W | 24 | 1.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ WAS | L | -2 | 3.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 7 | 4.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs SF | L | -3 | -0.7 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ DEN | L | -3 | 0.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs KC | W | 17 | -1.4 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs CHI | L | -17 | 0.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.