The Seahawks' points allowed with Zach Charbonnet and without Zach Charbonnet
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Seahawks were 2.0 points under with Zach Charbonnet and 3.3 points under without Zach Charbonnet over their last 35 games, 25 games against 10. The plain averages are 18.0 and 17.8, a difference of 0.2. Expected was 1.2 points lower with Zach Charbonnet than without Zach Charbonnet.
Zach Charbonnet, running back: 1,126 rushing yards, 265 carries and 38 receptions in 25 of those 35 games.
points allowed a game over expected
with Zach Charbonnet
−2.0
without Zach Charbonnet
−3.3
-20020
A +1.4 difference in points allowed over expected with Zach Charbonnet vs without Zach Charbonnet is about what you’d expect.
plain
18.0
17.8
0102030
A +0.2 difference in points allowed with Zach Charbonnet vs without Zach Charbonnet is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Zach Charbonnetwithout Zach Charbonnet
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs ARI | W | 6 | 23.2 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ NYJ | W | 21 | 20.5 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ARI | W | 18 | 23.6 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs GB | L | 30 | 23.6 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs MIN | L | 27 | 22.2 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | @ CHI | W | 3 | 20.7 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ LA | W | 25 | 22.4 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs SF | L | 17 | 19.4 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ PIT | W | 17 | 18.1 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs NO | W | 13 | 13.1 | |
| Sep 25, 2025 | @ARI | W | 20 | 17.6 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs TB | L | 38 | 15.3 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ JAX | W | 12 | 23.0 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | vs HOU | W | 19 | 17.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ WAS | W | 14 | 17.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsARI | W | 22 | 15.7 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @LA | L | 21 | 24.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ TEN | W | 24 | 14.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsMIN | W | 0 | 15.6 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ ATL | W | 9 | 17.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs IND | W | 16 | 21.6 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vsLA | W | 37 | 21.9 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ CAR | W | 10 | 16.2 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @SF | W | 3 | 22.1 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsSF | W | 6 | 20.1 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsLA | W | 27 | 22.7 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vs NE (neutral) | W | 13 | 20.2 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | vsNE | W | 10 | 23.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ARI | W | 7 | 23.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @WAS | L | 33 | 20.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 23 | 19.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsSF | L | 32 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 17 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs KC | W | 3 | 23.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vsCHI | L | 34 | 23.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.9 in 2024, minus 1.1 in 2025, minus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.