The Seahawks' carries with Sam Darnold and without Sam Darnold
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Seahawks were 0.1 carries under with Sam Darnold and 4.2 carries over without Sam Darnold in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 27.2 and 31.0, a difference of 3.8. All 4 second-half games were with Sam Darnold.
Sam Darnold, quarterback: 1,478 passing yards, 211 pass attempts and 127 completions in 7 games this season, 6% of SEA’s carries in those games.
2 games without Sam Darnold is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −4.3 difference in carries over expected with Sam Darnold vs without Sam Darnold is about what you’d expect.
A −3.8 difference in carries with Sam Darnold vs without Sam Darnold is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs NE | W | 22 | 26.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ ARI | W | 40 | 27.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ WAS | L | 18 | 27.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 33 | 28.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs SF | L | 26 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 26 | 28.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs KC | W | 41 | 26.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs CHI | L | 19 | 25.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.