The Seahawks' carries with Jadarian Price and without Jadarian Price
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Seahawks were 2.1 carries under with Jadarian Price and 4.0 carries over without Jadarian Price in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 24.8 and 31.5, a difference of 6.8.
Jadarian Price, running back: 148 rushing yards, 38 carries and 6 receptions in 4 games this season, 38% of SEA’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Jadarian Price
−2.1
without Jadarian Price
+4.0
010
A −6.1 difference in carries over expected with Jadarian Price vs without Jadarian Price is about what you’d expect.
plain
24.8
31.5
203040
A −6.8 difference in carries with Jadarian Price vs without Jadarian Price is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jadarian Pricewithout Jadarian Price
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs NE | W | 22 | 26.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ ARI | W | 40 | 27.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ WAS | L | 18 | 27.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 33 | 28.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs SF | L | 26 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 26 | 28.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs KC | W | 41 | 26.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs CHI | L | 19 | 25.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.