The Ravens' rushing yards with Zay Flowers and without Zay Flowers
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Ravens were 16.5 yards over with Zay Flowers and 39.6 yards over without Zay Flowers over their last 35 games, 32 games against 3. The plain averages are 158.9 and 194.3, a difference of 35.5. Both games after a bye were with Zay Flowers. All 4 games on a short week were with Zay Flowers. Both playoff games were without Zay Flowers.
Zay Flowers, receiver: 2,224 receiving yards, 154 receptions and 225 targets in 32 of those 35 games, 2% of BAL’s rushing yards in those games.
3 games without Zay Flowers is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −23.2 difference in rushing yards over expected with Zay Flowers vs without Zay Flowers is about what you’d expect.
A −35.5 difference in rushing yards with Zay Flowers vs without Zay Flowers is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2024 | vs CIN | W | 99 | 188.9 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ PIT | L | 124 | 172.5 | |
| Nov 25, 2024 | @ LAC | W | 212 | 183.7 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs PHI | L | 166 | 164.2 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ NYG | W | 170 | 188.4 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vsPIT | W | 220 | 163.5 | |
| Dec 25, 2024 | @ HOU | W | 251 | 166.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs CLE | W | 220 | 183.5 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vsPIT | W | 299 | 157.0 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | @ BUF | L | 176 | 180.8 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @BUF | L | 238 | 138.4 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsCLE | W | 45 | 142.3 | |
| Sep 22, 2025 | vs DET | L | 85 | 138.8 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ KC | L | 166 | 125.4 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vsHOU | L | 44 | 128.4 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs LA | L | 179 | 129.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs CHI | W | 177 | 145.6 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ MIA | W | 150 | 139.4 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ MIN | W | 152 | 136.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @CLE | W | 184 | 131.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs NYJ | W | 98 | 150.3 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | vsCIN | L | 123 | 153.4 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsPIT | L | 217 | 129.6 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @CIN | W | 189 | 147.3 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs NE | L | 171 | 124.6 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @ GB | W | 307 | 123.0 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @PIT | L | 137 | 132.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ IND | W | 202 | 114.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs NO | L | 108 | 126.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs DAL (neutral) | W | 192 | 127.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 112 | 124.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 208 | 105.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @CLE | L | 87 | 121.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsCIN | L | 83 | 121.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @BUF | L | 76 | 114.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.5 in 2024, plus 1.9 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2024, 49% in 2025, 32% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.