The Ravens' rushing yards with Lamar Jackson and without Lamar Jackson
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Ravens were 17.5 yards over with Lamar Jackson and 21.5 yards over without Lamar Jackson over their last 35 games, 27 games against 8. The plain averages are 166.9 and 145.1, a difference of 21.8. Expected was 25.8 yards higher with Lamar Jackson than without Lamar Jackson. All 4 games on a short week were with Lamar Jackson. Both playoff games were with Lamar Jackson.
Lamar Jackson, quarterback: 5,738 passing yards, 664 pass attempts and 436 completions in 28 of those 35 games, 22% of BAL’s rushing yards in those games.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −4.0 difference in rushing yards over expected with Lamar Jackson vs without Lamar Jackson is about what you’d expect.
A +21.8 difference in rushing yards with Lamar Jackson vs without Lamar Jackson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2024 | vs CIN | W | 99 | 188.9 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ PIT | L | 124 | 172.5 | |
| Nov 25, 2024 | @ LAC | W | 212 | 183.7 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs PHI | L | 166 | 164.2 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ NYG | W | 170 | 188.4 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vsPIT | W | 220 | 163.5 | |
| Dec 25, 2024 | @ HOU | W | 251 | 166.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs CLE | W | 220 | 183.5 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vsPIT | W | 299 | 157.0 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | @ BUF | L | 176 | 180.8 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @BUF | L | 238 | 138.4 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsCLE | W | 45 | 142.3 | |
| Sep 22, 2025 | vs DET | L | 85 | 138.8 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ KC | L | 166 | 125.4 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vsHOU | L | 44 | 128.4 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs LA | L | 179 | 129.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs CHI | W | 177 | 145.6 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ MIA | W | 150 | 139.4 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ MIN | W | 152 | 136.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @CLE | W | 184 | 131.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs NYJ | W | 98 | 150.3 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | vsCIN | L | 123 | 153.4 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsPIT | L | 217 | 129.6 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @CIN | W | 189 | 147.3 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs NE | L | 171 | 124.6 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @ GB | W | 307 | 123.0 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @PIT | L | 137 | 132.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ IND | W | 202 | 114.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs NO | L | 108 | 126.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs DAL (neutral) | W | 192 | 127.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 112 | 124.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 208 | 105.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @CLE | L | 87 | 121.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsCIN | L | 83 | 121.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @BUF | L | 76 | 114.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.5 in 2024, plus 1.9 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2024, 49% in 2025, 32% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.