The Ravens' points of margin with Zay Flowers and without Zay Flowers
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Ravens were 1.4 points under with Zay Flowers and 7.7 points under without Zay Flowers in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are -2.4 and -7.0, a difference of 4.6. All 4 away games were with Zay Flowers. Both division games were with Zay Flowers. All 4 second-half games were with Zay Flowers.
Zay Flowers, receiver: 608 receiving yards, 40 receptions and 58 targets in 7 games this season.
One game without Zay Flowers is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Zay Flowers
−1.4
without Zay Flowers
−7.7
-200
plain
-2.4
-7.0
-200
The games
with Zay Flowerswithout Zay Flowers
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ IND | W | 18 | -0.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs NO | L | -7 | 0.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs DAL (neutral) | W | 3 | -1.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 6 | 1.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 7 | -2.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ CLE | L | -3 | -0.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs CIN | L | -22 | -2.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ BUF | L | -26 | -1.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.