The Ravens' carries with Lamar Jackson and since Lamar Jackson’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Ravens were 4.1 carries over with Lamar Jackson and 1.0 carries under since Lamar Jackson’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 31.8 and 26.0, a difference of 5.8. Both division games were since Lamar Jackson’s last game. All 4 first-half games were with Lamar Jackson. All 4 second-half games were since Lamar Jackson’s last game.
Lamar Jackson, quarterback: 967 passing yards, 97 pass attempts and 68 completions in 5 games this season, 13% of BAL’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A +5.1 difference in carries over expected with Lamar Jackson vs since Lamar Jackson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +5.8 difference in carries with Lamar Jackson vs since Lamar Jackson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ IND | W | 37 | 26.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs NO | L | 22 | 28.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs DAL (neutral) | W | 38 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs TEN | W | 30 | 28.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 35 | 26.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ CLE | L | 23 | 27.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs CIN | L | 27 | 26.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ BUF | L | 19 | 27.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.