The Rams' points with Myles Garrett and since Myles Garrett’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Rams were 16.5 points under with Myles Garrett and 3.4 points over since Myles Garrett’s last game over their last 35 games, 1 game against 7. The plain averages are 7.0 and 26.7, a difference of 19.7. All 4 home games were since Myles Garrett’s last game. All 3 away games were since Myles Garrett’s last game. All 6 games outside the division were since Myles Garrett’s last game.
Myles Garrett, defensive lineman: 0 of those 35 games.
One game with Myles Garrett is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Myles Garrett
−16.5
since Myles Garrett’s last game
+3.4
-10010
plain
7.0
26.7
102030
The games
with Myles Garrettsince Myles Garrett’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs BUF | W | 44 | 21.2 | |
| Dec 12, 2024 | @ SF | W | 12 | 24.8 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ NYJ | W | 19 | 23.7 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs ARI | W | 13 | 23.5 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 25 | 22.4 | |
| Jan 13, 2025 | vs MIN (neutral) | W | 27 | 20.4 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | @ PHI | L | 22 | 18.6 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs HOU | W | 14 | 25.5 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ TEN | W | 33 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @PHI | L | 26 | 25.1 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs IND | W | 27 | 30.9 | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | vsSF | L | 23 | 28.9 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ BAL | W | 17 | 29.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs JAX (neutral) | W | 35 | 26.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs NO | W | 34 | 28.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @SF | W | 42 | 25.7 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsSEA | W | 21 | 24.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs TB | W | 34 | 30.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ CAR | L | 28 | 27.4 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ARI | W | 45 | 29.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs DET | W | 41 | 30.0 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @SEA | L | 37 | 21.9 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @ ATL | L | 24 | 29.1 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsARI | W | 37 | 31.8 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @CAR | W | 34 | 26.9 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 20 | 30.2 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @SEA | L | 27 | 22.7 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vsSF (neutral) | L | 7 | 23.5 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | vs NYG | W | 28 | 22.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 26 | 21.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @PHI | W | 24 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vsBUF | L | 34 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsARI | L | 16 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ LV | W | 35 | 23.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 24 | 22.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 27 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Myles Garrett nor since Myles Garrett’s last game: Myles Garrett had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.