The Rams' points with Aaron Donald and without Aaron Donald
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Rams were 3.9 points over with Aaron Donald and 7.8 points under without Aaron Donald in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 27.2 and 15.5, a difference of 11.7. All 4 home games were with Aaron Donald. All 4 second-half games were with Aaron Donald.
Aaron Donald, defensive lineman: 6 games this season.
2 games without Aaron Donald is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Aaron Donald
+3.9
without Aaron Donald
−7.8
-10010
A +11.7 difference in points over expected with Aaron Donald vs without Aaron Donald is about what you’d expect.
plain
27.2
15.5
102030
A +11.7 difference in points with Aaron Donald vs without Aaron Donald is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Aaron Donaldwithout Aaron Donald
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs SF (neutral) | L | 7 | 23.5 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | vs NYG | W | 28 | 22.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 26 | 21.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 24 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 34 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs ARI | L | 16 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ LV | W | 35 | 23.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 24 | 22.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.