The Rams' points of margin with Davante Adams and without Davante Adams
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Rams were 1.7 points over with Davante Adams and 3.8 points over without Davante Adams over their last 35 games, 23 games against 5. The plain averages are 6.9 and 8.4, a difference of 1.5. Both neutral-site games were with Davante Adams. All 3 playoff games were with Davante Adams.
Davante Adams, receiver: 1,454 receiving yards, 101 receptions and 188 targets in 23 of those 35 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Davante Adams
+1.7
without Davante Adams
+3.8
020
A −2.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Davante Adams vs without Davante Adams is about what you’d expect.
plain
6.9
8.4
-20020
A −1.5 difference in points of margin with Davante Adams vs without Davante Adams is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Davante Adams and it comes up 18 times in 100.
The games
with Davante Adamswithout Davante Adams
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs BUF | W | 2 | -5.1 | |
| Dec 12, 2024 | @ SF | W | 6 | 0.1 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ NYJ | W | 10 | 2.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs ARI | W | 4 | 0.7 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs SEA | L | -5 | 2.3 | |
| Jan 13, 2025 | vs MIN (neutral) | W | 18 | -4.5 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | @ PHI | L | -6 | -8.7 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs HOU | W | 5 | 4.0 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ TEN | W | 14 | 13.7 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @PHI | L | -7 | 6.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs IND | W | 7 | 7.1 | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | vsSF | L | -3 | 7.9 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ BAL | W | 14 | 5.8 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs JAX (neutral) | W | 28 | 0.3 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs NO | W | 24 | 13.8 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @SF | W | 16 | 2.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsSEA | W | 2 | -0.5 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs TB | W | 27 | 10.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ CAR | L | -3 | 10.8 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ARI | W | 28 | 9.3 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs DET | W | 7 | 8.2 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @SEA | L | -1 | -4.2 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @ ATL | L | -3 | 10.7 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsARI | W | 17 | 14.2 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @CAR | W | 3 | 10.3 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 3 | 7.2 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @SEA | L | -4 | -4.0 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vsSF (neutral) | L | -20 | -0.1 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | vs NYG | W | 22 | -0.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DEN | L | -4 | -0.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @PHI | W | 4 | 3.3 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vsBUF | L | -3 | -1.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsARI | L | -2 | 3.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ LV | W | 14 | -0.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 15 | 2.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.3 in 2025, plus 0.4 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2025, 28% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 7 games in 2024 are neither with Davante Adams nor without Davante Adams: Davante Adams had no game for the team that season, and sit out.